Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 140441

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1141 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Update for 6z aviation only.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Diurnal destabilization has been tempered by cloud cover, so
little in the way of storms well out in advance of the primary
system. Watches are posted in relation to it, to our southwest,
running thru 03Z, which looks to be the tag line for tonight`s
potential. We will see how it all comes together heading into the
night time hours, but at this writing, the models are supportive
of the elements coming together into a squall line over
Arkansas/western MO, and translating eastward toward the
Mississippi river this evening. The best severe threat (for us) will
be clipping our southern counties, with damaging winds still
looking to be the primary severe weather hazard. Forecast rainfall
with this first round looks to be in the 1 to 2 inch range,
mainly south and west, with another 1 to possible 2 inches
translated further east (lesser amounts west of the Lakes) for
Sat-Sat night, for areal storm totals of 1 to 3 inches. These
aforementioned hazards continue to be highlighted via the ESF/HWO.

The warmer air pre system that has arrived will stick around for
the start of the weekend, before cooling behind the first round,
particularly Sat night-Sunday, under the occluding Low. Lingering
clouds/pcpn cannot be ruled out so long as this Low is in the
vicinity, which it will be thru the remainder of the short term
forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Models are in pretty good agreement for next week.  High pressure
will drift across the middle and lower Mississippi valley Monday
into Tuesday, becoming centered over Florida by 00z Wednesday.  Dry
and cool conditions are expected Monday.  A warm front will lift
north across the region on Tuesday, and a return of south winds will
trigger a significant warm up.  Models then drag a mostly dry cold
front across the PAH forecast area on Wednesday. GFS and ECMWF
indicate a few blips of QPF in our eastern counties with its
passage, but for now we will keep the forecast dry.  Dry conditions
are expected for the end of the week, with temperatures dropping
back to a few degrees below normal.


Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

We will have a line of thunderstorms move through during the first
leg of the TAF at all sites. This will restrict vsby but cigs seem
to be staying MVFR at worst. There will also be gusty winds some
near severe with any thunderstorms. FROPA is not expected until
near the last leg of the TAF or around 00z Sunday. This will
result in a wind shift more westerly toward the end of the valid
time. Otherwise winds may drop gusts for a few hours ahead of the
storms but gusts should return.




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