Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

FXUS63 KPAH 142033

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
333 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the PAH forecast area
into early Fri, as a strong area of high pressure over the
southeastern CONUS moves eastward. By Thu night, clouds will be on
the increase as a west-east surface front/convergence boundary
sets up across our region. Despite the approach of a tight,
initially stacked low coming out of the central Plains, this
front/convergence boundary is progged to sink southward Thu
night/Fri, because of mid level shortwave energy coming around the
dominant vortex rotating into the Canadian maritimes. Meanwhile,
low level fetch will be out of the southwest, providing moisture
to lift over the frontal wedge in place, which will be maintained
by cool easterly winds. This Fri morning setup will provide the
best QPF of the short term (up to a quarter inch or so in six

Meanwhile, positive vorticity advection ahead of the aforementioned
low should destabilize the atmosphere enough for at least isolated
tstms Fri afternoon and evening, starting in the west and translating
eastward. There is a limited chance of severe weather occurring
in MO, close to the AR state line, due to robust bulk shear and
and 200+ m2/s2 helicity numbers in the models. Showers will wane
overnight as the mid level flow goes zonal.

Thu should be a relatively nice day, with temps mostly in the 60s,
mostly clear skies, although it will be a bit breezy across
western KY and part of southeastern MO.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Improving conditions should occur over the weekend as the
Friday/Friday night system moves off to the east and high pressure
both at the surface and aloft build east into the Ohio Valley.
Clouds may limit some warming, but higher than normal temps should
return as the upper ridge moves overhead as sfc winds eventually
become more southerly. Many locations will see 60s both Sat and
Sunday afternoons.

The next weather system to affect the region will come in the form
of a H50 trof and associated surface low the should move east-
southeast across the region early next week. Depending on the track
of the surface low, which could be very close to the OH River, there
may be a window of opportunity for MUCAPES to jump above 500 J/K, so
will introduce mention of a few possibly strong thunderstorms with
this package. Surface temps should remain mild Monday with the
passage of the system, but temps will cool to at or below normals as
cooler and drier air moves in Tuesday/Tuesday night.


Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

High pressure will move eastward across the lower Mississippi River
Valley today, then continue eastward tonight. Clear skies and
excellent visibility will continue through this TAF period. A few
afternoon instability cumulus clouds will form over northwestern KY
and southwestern IN, with bases above 4k feet AGL. The main focus
will be on increasing low level southwest winds tonight. Winds at 2k
feet will increase to 40 to 50 knots overnight. This warrants
mentioning low level wind shear in the TAFs.




AVIATION...DB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.