000
FXUS63 KPAH 231846
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
146 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany a cold
  front on its approach today and passage tonight.

- A stormier pattern emerges with a weekend warmup. The best
  chance of stronger storms is late Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

As a cold front currently to our north heads this way, it will
spread its clouds/pcpn chances southward with it. There is not
much instability to work with down here, but it is overachieving
with thunder across central MO attm. There may be just enough
convergence and lift from the distinct boundary itself to help
with clapping a storm off here or there, so we`ll maintain the
isolated mention we`ve inherited until the front`s complete
passage. This occurs overnight, coincident with about a 3-5 hour
period of light shower activity. High end storm total QPF
should range from 1/3-1/2 inch north, to 1/4 inch or less
south.

Surface high pressure takes over after fropa, providing a
seasonally pleasant mid week with temperatures returning toward
climo norms in the lower 70s and lower 50s for highs/lows.

Toward week`s end, the aforementioned surface high migrates over
the upper Ohio Valley, while ridging aloft builds in/across the
Mid Mississippi Valley. This brings a return of above normal
temperatures with a warmup that carries into/thru the weekend.
80s make their return for highs and 60s for lows.

With the warming profile comes a moistening one as well, and
instability builds over the course of the weekend as dew points
return to the 60s. This leads to an introduction of more or
less daily pops, with best chances associated with nearing
systems Friday into Friday night, and then again Sunday into
Sunday night. The latter of these two would appear to bring
together better the necessary elements of moisture,
instability, and lift, in more cohesive fashion, to support
strong to potentially severe thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Visible imagery shows mass cloudiness approaching the terminals
with a cold front`s move our direction from the north. Lowering
VFR CIGS will produce scattered showers that may offer VSBY
restrictions in heavier pockets. Gusty south to southwest winds
will precede the front, then upon its passage overnight, winds
shift to the northwest and diminish as bases scatter. Tranquil
Visual Flight Rules take hold by the planning period and beyond
with only a few high clouds forecast and a light north breeze.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$