Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FGUS73 KPAH 141454
ESFPAH
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185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047-
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233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-DDHHMM-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
952 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2024

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...

This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time
period for mid-March through mid-May. It includes the mid-
Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for
southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast
Missouri.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...

Flood potential is normal to below normal for the outlook period for
much of the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys and their tributaries
in southwest Indiana and southern Illinois, and west Kentucky. A
strong El Nino played a large role in what has been a drier and
warmer winter across the entire region.

Flooding in this region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground
moisture, river flows, and expected precipitation. Ice jams are
rarely a factor in flooding for this part of the country.

...Current Conditions...

While some rain fell within the past week, rain totals were
negligible. Precipitation totals for most locations across the
region for the month of February were less than one inch. While
there is a small rise coming down some of the bigger rivers due to
forecasted rainfall, no forecast points are expected to exceed flood
stage.

Smaller rivers in southeast Missouri are running 10 to 20 percent of
normal. The Ohio and Mississippi Rivers are running less than 20
percent of normal near the confluence. Most areas are below normal
average flow.

Surface soil moisture is below normal but it is responsive to local
rainfall. Deeper soil moisture and longer term accumulative averages
remain below normal. There is no frost depth in our region. There is
no significant snow in either the Mississippi or the Ohio Valleys.

...Probabilistic Outlooks...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Green River
Calhoun             23.0   26.0   32.0 :  20   33   11   20   <5   <5
Paradise           380.0  386.0  400.0 :  63   64   18   22   <5   <5
:Little Wabash River
Carmi               27.0   32.0   35.0 :  63   64   37   38   17   20
:Ohio River
Evansville          42.0   48.0   52.0 :  15   22   <5   <5   <5   <5
Golconda            40.0   49.0   55.0 :  27   44   <5    6   <5   <5
Henderson           36.0   43.0   48.0 :  75   51   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mount Vernon        35.0   45.0   52.0 :  57   66   <5   <5   <5   <5
Newburgh Dam        38.0   48.0   56.0 :  71   75   <5   <5   <5   <5
Owensboro           40.0   44.0   49.0 :  23   31   <5   <5   <5   <5
Shawneetown         33.0   43.0   53.0 :  67   79   18   35   <5   <5
J.T. Myers Dam      37.0   49.0   60.0 :  60   71   <5    6   <5   <5
:Patoka River
Princeton           18.0   20.0   23.0 :  59   62   40   47   15   13
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City          15.0   17.0   20.0 :  41   40   33   33   20   20
:Wabash River
New Harmony         15.0   20.0   23.0 :  68   79   19   26   <5   <5
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield           20.0   27.0   34.0 :  45   55   10   12   <5   <5
Murphysboro         22.0   28.0   36.0 :  46   69   28   47   15   16

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun              15.1   15.8   16.6   18.2   21.4   26.4   29.6
Paradise            373.6  375.8  378.5  381.6  384.6  387.5  390.3
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                19.6   21.0   24.5   29.7   33.9   35.9   36.8
:Ohio River
Evansville           27.5   28.8   34.1   37.3   40.8   42.6   42.8
Golconda             32.9   33.3   35.0   37.6   40.2   44.2   46.1
Henderson            23.3   24.5   29.5   32.6   36.1   38.1   38.3
Mount Vernon         27.8   28.6   32.8   35.8   39.5   41.8   42.2
Newburgh Dam         29.4   32.1   37.3   41.3   43.4   44.6   44.9
Owensboro            26.6   29.1   33.4   36.8   39.7   41.6   42.0
Shawneetown          27.1   28.1   31.3   36.3   40.8   45.4   47.1
J.T. Myers Dam       29.0   30.0   34.3   38.9   42.3   45.5   47.3
:Patoka River
Princeton            12.0   13.5   16.0   19.1   21.3   24.0   24.3
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            8.0    8.9   10.1   12.6   19.1   22.0   24.8
:Wabash River
New Harmony           9.6   11.4   14.4   16.7   19.7   20.6   21.0
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield            12.0   12.6   16.4   19.1   22.0   27.0   31.7
Murphysboro          13.1   14.5   17.9   20.4   29.1   41.4   41.5

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/19/2024 - 06/17/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun              12.1   11.8   11.3   11.0   10.8   10.6   10.5
Paradise            367.2  366.8  366.0  365.4  365.1  364.9  364.8
:Little Wabash River
Carmi                 5.2    4.5    3.8    3.3    2.9    2.8    2.7
:Ohio River
Evansville           16.4   15.9   15.2   14.5   14.0   13.8   13.7
Golconda             29.8   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.6   29.5
Henderson            14.3   13.9   13.4   12.8   12.5   12.3   12.2
Mount Vernon         23.9   23.8   23.7   23.5   23.4   23.4   23.3
Newburgh Dam         17.0   16.7   15.5   14.7   13.8   13.5   13.4
Owensboro            19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0   19.0
Shawneetown          19.2   18.3   17.5   16.8   16.5   16.3   16.2
J.T. Myers Dam       19.1   17.6   16.1   15.0   14.2   13.3   13.0
:Patoka River
Princeton             8.1    7.9    7.0    5.3    4.7    4.6    4.5
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City            5.4    5.3    5.2    5.1    5.0    4.7    4.7
:Wabash River
New Harmony           5.0    4.1    3.2    2.6    1.9    1.6    1.5
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield             9.9    8.4    7.4    6.3    5.5    5.0    4.6
Murphysboro           9.0    7.2    5.5    4.4    3.4    1.5    0.4

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

...Weather Outlooks...

A fairly strong spring storm will affect the region through Friday.
Showers and storms are possible. Some of the strong storms may
produce brief heavy rainfall.

The 8 to 14 day outlook for March 21 through 27 calls for normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation. During this time,
normal average temperatures are around 50 degrees and rainfall
during this period is between 1 and 1.2 inches.

The Outlook through March calls for equal chances for precipitation.
This means that there is no strong signal in the long range models
and there are equal chances for normal, below normal, and above
normal rainfall. Normal precipitation for March is between 4 and 4
1/2 inches. The outlook for March through May calls for above normal
precipitation.

Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water
information.

This will be the last Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook for
2024 unless conditions warrant.

$$

Lamm




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