Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
000 FGUS73 KPAH 291541 ESFPAH ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181- 185-191-193-199-INC051-125-129-147-163-173-KYC007-033-035-039-047- 055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225- 233-MOC017-023-031-035-133-143-157-181-201-207-223-141200- PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 938 AM CST THU FEB 29 2024 ...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2... This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time period for March through May. It includes the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast Missouri. ...Flood Outlook Highlights... Flood potential is normal to below normal for the outlook period for much of the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys and their tributaries in southwest Indiana and southern Illinois, and west Kentucky. A strong El Nino played a large role in what has been a drier and warmer winter across the entire region. Flooding in this region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground moisture, river flows, and expected precipitation. Ice jams are rarely a factor in flooding for this part of the country. ...Current Conditions... While some rain fell earlier this week along a cold front, rain totals were negligible. Precipitation totals for most locations across the region for the month of February have been less than one inch. While there is a small rise coming down some of the bigger rivers, no forecast points are expected to exceed flood stage. Smaller rivers in southeast Missouri are running 10 to 30 percent of normal. The Ohio and Mississippi Rivers are running 20 to 40 percent of normal. Most areas are near to below normal average flow. While surface soil moisture has significantly rebounded since the extremely dry fall and early winter last year, deeper soil moisture and longer term accumulative averages remain below normal. There is no frost depth in our region. There is no significant snow in either the Mississippi or the Ohio Valleys. ...Probabilistic Outlooks... In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listed for the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on current conditions. HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category based on historical or normal conditions. When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower than normal. ...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding... Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024 : Current and Historical : Chances of Exceeding : Flood Categories : as a Percentage (%) Categorical : Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS -------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- --- :Green River Calhoun 23.0 26.0 32.0 : 25 41 16 26 <5 6 Paradise 380.0 386.0 400.0 : 60 71 26 33 <5 <5 :Little Wabash River Carmi 27.0 32.0 35.0 : 71 66 47 39 24 21 :Ohio River Evansville 42.0 48.0 52.0 : 15 30 <5 <5 <5 <5 Golconda 40.0 49.0 55.0 : 34 45 <5 8 <5 <5 Henderson 36.0 43.0 48.0 : 75 51 <5 <5 <5 <5 Mount Vernon 35.0 45.0 52.0 : 58 69 <5 8 <5 <5 Newburgh Dam 38.0 48.0 56.0 : 71 79 <5 <5 <5 <5 Owensboro 40.0 44.0 49.0 : 27 37 <5 9 <5 <5 Shawneetown 33.0 43.0 53.0 : 69 83 21 38 <5 <5 J.T. Myers Dam 37.0 49.0 60.0 : 63 76 <5 9 <5 <5 :Patoka River Princeton 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 67 63 52 50 21 18 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 44 43 37 35 25 24 :Wabash River New Harmony 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 77 83 24 27 <5 <5 :Black River Poplar Bluff 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 15 34 <5 17 <5 10 :Current River Doniphan 13.0 18.0 22.0 : 10 24 <5 14 <5 9 Van Buren 20.0 23.0 27.0 : <5 14 <5 9 <5 7 :Mississippi River Hickman 34.0 40.0 43.0 : 72 >95 51 69 35 58 Cape Girardeau 32.0 37.0 42.0 : <5 80 <5 61 <5 41 New Madrid 34.0 40.0 44.0 : 50 65 17 27 <5 <5 Thebes 33.0 37.0 42.0 : 49 75 27 57 12 34 :Ohio River Cairo 40.0 47.0 53.0 : 73 94 50 64 22 38 Olmsted Lock and 36.0 42.0 47.0 : 69 91 52 64 24 45 Paducah 39.0 43.0 52.0 : 58 69 44 53 8 15 Smithland Dam 40.0 48.0 50.0 : 49 62 9 20 7 15 :St. Francis River Fisk 20.0 22.0 26.0 : 8 25 7 23 <5 21 Patterson 16.0 25.0 32.0 : 52 55 15 19 <5 9 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 20.0 27.0 34.0 : 53 56 13 14 <5 <5 Murphysboro 22.0 28.0 36.0 : 53 73 31 47 14 16 Legend CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook) HS = Historical Simulation FT = Feet In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities... Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Green River Calhoun 15.1 15.7 16.5 18.0 23.0 27.9 29.8 Paradise 373.5 374.8 378.2 381.1 386.3 389.6 390.8 :Little Wabash River Carmi 19.1 21.8 26.1 31.7 34.9 36.6 37.6 :Ohio River Evansville 28.2 29.6 33.5 37.8 41.0 42.5 42.6 Golconda 32.7 33.8 35.1 38.2 41.1 44.2 46.4 Henderson 24.0 25.2 28.8 33.1 36.3 37.9 38.1 Mount Vernon 28.2 29.0 32.1 36.4 39.9 41.7 42.0 Newburgh Dam 31.1 32.7 37.4 41.0 43.7 44.4 44.6 Owensboro 28.4 29.6 33.5 36.6 40.2 41.3 41.6 Shawneetown 27.1 29.1 31.5 37.4 42.2 45.4 47.1 J.T. Myers Dam 29.4 31.8 34.5 39.7 43.2 45.5 47.2 :Patoka River Princeton 11.6 12.9 17.0 20.2 22.4 24.9 25.8 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 9.3 10.1 11.1 13.4 20.1 23.1 23.4 :Wabash River New Harmony 10.7 12.4 15.3 17.6 19.9 21.0 21.6 :Black River Poplar Bluff 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 13.5 17.1 18.2 :Current River Van Buren 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 7.0 14.5 18.8 :Mississippi River Hickman 29.5 30.1 33.0 40.4 44.8 50.6 52.5 Cape Girardeau 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 New Madrid 24.3 24.9 27.1 34.1 37.7 41.9 43.9 Thebes 20.0 20.1 26.8 32.8 37.4 42.9 46.7 :Ohio River Cairo 35.2 36.5 39.5 46.9 51.5 57.9 59.6 Olmsted Lock and 31.0 31.7 33.8 42.9 46.6 51.9 55.0 Paducah 27.3 28.3 33.2 41.8 46.5 50.6 54.9 Smithland Dam 26.2 27.3 30.2 39.8 43.8 47.0 52.3 :St. Francis River Fisk 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 13.5 16.9 25.4 Patterson 6.8 7.3 11.0 16.4 19.0 28.2 30.0 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 11.8 13.7 16.9 20.2 23.0 27.7 32.3 Murphysboro 12.8 14.1 18.2 24.5 30.4 41.5 42.8 In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid time period. ...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities... Chance of Falling Below Stages at Specific Locations Valid Period: 03/05/2024 - 06/03/2024 Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ :Green River Calhoun 12.3 11.9 11.4 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.5 Paradise 367.9 367.5 366.2 365.6 365.2 365.0 364.9 :Little Wabash River Carmi 5.8 4.5 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.9 :Ohio River Evansville 17.5 16.1 15.2 14.4 13.9 13.6 13.6 Golconda 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 Henderson 15.0 14.0 13.3 12.7 12.4 12.2 12.1 Mount Vernon 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.3 Newburgh Dam 17.7 16.5 15.4 14.3 13.6 13.3 13.1 Owensboro 19.1 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 Shawneetown 19.6 18.4 17.5 16.7 16.4 16.2 16.2 J.T. Myers Dam 19.7 17.8 16.2 14.9 14.0 13.0 12.9 :Patoka River Princeton 6.7 5.9 4.7 3.8 3.2 2.8 2.6 :Skillet Fork River Wayne City 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 :Wabash River New Harmony 4.3 3.9 3.2 2.8 2.2 1.8 1.5 :Big Muddy River Plumfield 8.3 8.0 7.0 6.2 5.7 5.1 4.7 Murphysboro 7.5 6.6 5.3 3.2 1.4 0.7 0.1 These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years of climatological data...including current conditions of the river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction service. ...Weather Outlooks... Weather will be quiet through the weekend. While there is a small chance for some light rain overnight tonight, the weekend looks dry. The next chance of rain will not be until early next week. Seven day rain totals may be around one inch. The 8 to 14 day outlook for March 7 through 13 calls for above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. During this time, normal average temperatures are 45 to 50 degrees and rainfall during this period is between 1 and 1.2 inches. The Outlook through March calls for equal chances for precipitation. This means that there is no strong signal in the long range models and there are equal chances for normal, below normal, and above normal rainfall. Normal precipitation for March is between 4 and 4 1/2 inches. The outlook for March through May calls for above normal precipitation. Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water information. The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued March 14 2024. $$
- National Weather Service
- Paducah, KY Weather Forecast Office
- 8250 Kentucky Highway 3520
- West Paducah, KY 42086-9762
- 270-744-6440
- Page Author: PAH Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: w-pah.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: Sep 19th, 2023 19:10 UTC