442
FXZS60 NSTU 080028
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
128 PM SST Tue May 7 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imageries show a dry pocket of air lingers over the
islands. However, clusters of thunderstorms associated with the
trough line to the south and the open cell cumuli clouds to the
north-northeast surrounds the area, indicating an unstable
atmosphere. Model data shows the trough line and the open cell
cumuli clouds converging over the area, increasing the potential
for adverse weather conditions. Model solutions also show the
convergenze zone migrating northward as a low pressure system
embedded within the trough line to the south moves southeastward,
pushing the convergence zone closer and over the islands by at
least Wednesday.

Long term model solutions show the potential for showers and winds
to increase by the latter part of the week into the new week. A
much broader and larger high pressure system will generate
moderate to fresh trades by Saturday through the new week.

Therefore, expect scattered showers for tonight through Wednesday,
increasing to numerous showers by Thursday with the possibility of
thunderstorms rumbling. Showers are expected to be heavy at times
with gusty winds during heavy downpours. Gentle north to
northwest winds will remain for tonight through at least Thursday,
becoming variable on Thursday night through Friday. Winds will
again increase to fresh trades on Saturday through the rest of the
forecast period. Showers will

&&

.Marine...
High surfs reaching the road continues to be observed throughout
the south and west facing shores. This feature is linked directly
to the long period south swell along the coastal waters. Model
data show seas subsiding tonight through at least Friday, before
building again to advisory thresholds on Friday night into the
weekend. However, although seas will subside tonight, the long
periods will continue to linger in the area, enhancing surfs.
Additionally, thunderstorms in the area will likely elevate seas
and surfs nearby. Therefore, advisories for small crafts and high
surfs will remain through at least tonight.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen