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000
FXUS65 KPUB 202054
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
254 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and weak thunderstorms will continue to push off the terrain
  and into the mountain adjacent plains later this afternoon
  and into this evening.

- Another round of fog and drizzle will be possible over the
  Pikes Peak region early Sunday morning.

- Critical Fire Weather concerns return for Monday for the San
  Luis Valley and southern I-25 corridor.

- Slight cool down for Tuesday with isolated to scattered
  showers and thunderstorms for the SE mountains and adjacent
  plains then windy and warmer late week with critical fire
  weather conditions for the lower elevations.

&&


.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Currently..

Satellite imagery reveals westerly flow and lots of pockets of
convection over the mountains as shortwave energy traverses the
region. Cumulus is also prevalent over the eastern plains, while
much of the northern I-25 corridor is still socked in with stratus
as of 2pm, though clearing is creeping in as upslope continues to
deteriorate. Lightning is present in several small cells over our
southern mountains and along the eastern edges of the San Luis
Valley.

This Evening and Tonight..

As shortwave energy continues to drag best forcing and instability
eastward, expect showers and weak thunderstorms to continue to
spread towards Fremont County and our eastern mountains, eventually
drifting off the terrain and into the I-25 corridor by 3 to 4pm this
afternoon. Showers continue into the evening hours, before coming to
an end across most areas by around 10pm tonight. Southeasterly winds
continue into the overnight hours over El Paso County, which could
allow another round of fog and drizzle to redevelop across the Pikes
Peak region, especially if sufficient showers occur in that area
later this afternoon and this evening. Fog was included over Teller
and El Paso counties late tonight and into early tomorrow morning
with this forecast package, though confidence was too low to go with
a dense fog advisory at this time.

Tomorrow..

Once any lingering upslope conditions deteriorate across our
mountain adjacent plains in the morning, expect gradual clearing
from west to east throughout the morning hours. Daytime highs are
expected to warm to near normal temperatures under northwesterly
flow aloft and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures look to warm into
the mid 60s across most of the plains and our mountain valleys, with
upper 50s for the Palmer Divide and the Raton Mesa, and 40s to 50s
for higher elevation locations. Winds will be fairly light and
diurnally driven. Apart from a few spotty showers and weak
thunderstorms over our far southern mountains tomorrow afternoon,
precipitation is not expected across the forecast area tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Monday will be dry and warmer across the region with some weak
energy along the southern periphery of the southern Canadian
upper low translating through NW flow aloft. This will help kick
the lee trough eastward allowing gusty winds to spread from the
mountains into the valleys and southern I-25 corridor in the
afternoon. Humidity values drop below critical thresholds so
have issued a Fire Weather Watch for Monday for the San Luis
Valley and southern I-25 corridor. These may need to be extended
eastward a tier of counties but confidence was not as high
farther east. Temperatures will rebound above normal with
readings in the 70s and 80s across the lower elevations with
50s and 60s for the mountain communities.

A cold front drops through the southeast plains Monday night
with models in better agreement on this later timing vs runs
from yesterday. This will drop temperatures back around 10-15
degrees from the Monday`s and bring sufficient moisture in
upslope flow for another round of showers and afternoon
thunderstorms for the mountains and adjacent plains.

Southwest flow increases for the middle to latter part of the work
week with another system moving into southern CA then filling
and lifting northeastward across CO late in the period. There
are still some timing differences to contend with, but overall
trend will be towards warmer and windier conditions with bouts
of moisture spreading into the mountains for daily shower and
thunderstorm chances. Will also have to watch the eastern border
for thunderstorms along a dry line though best moisture return
appears to hold off until Thursday and position of the dry line
may put most of the risk east of the CO/KS border. West of the
dry line however, critical fire weather conditions will likely
ramp up again with another round of fire weather highlights
possible Thursday and Friday as consensus of the models and
ensembles take the system just north of the area. Eyeing another
stronger storm system for next weekend though timing still
uncertain.
-KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024

At KCOS...Gradual clearing is expected this morning from northwest
to southeast, though IFR ceilings are still present over station
this hour. Visibilities have improved. Ceilings are expected to
improve to MVFR thresholds from 22-23Z,  Another round of showers is
expected this afternoon and this evening, with the return of LIFR
conditions possible after 04Z tonight.

At KPUB...VFR ceilings are expected to persist until 22-23Z this
afternoon, before another chance for light rain showers will move
through the area. Chances for IFR ceilings and visibilities on
station after 03Z this evening are low to medium tonight, but will
increase if showers manage to move over station later today.
Therefore have gone ahead and included mention of IFR ceilings in
the TAF for later this period. MVFR and VFR conditions are expected
after 15Z tomorrow morning as winds shift more southeasterly and
upslope weakens over the area.

AT KALS..VFR conditions are expected over station for the next 24
hours. Northwesterly winds with gusts to 25kt are expected to
persist through the remainder of this afternoon, before abruptly
shifting to easterly around 03Z this evening. Mid and upper-level
cloud cover is expected, but precipitation is not likely over or
near the terminal.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for COZ222-224-227>230.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EHR
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...EHR