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000
FXUS62 KRAH 260804
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
404 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the eastern United States through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 310 AM Thursday...

The surface ridge will amplify swwd through central NC through this
morning and remain over the area through tonight. As of 06Z, the
layer of marine stratus has spread over much of the Coastal Plain
and into the eastern Piedmont. This stratus will continue spreading
westward through the area over the next few hours and remain through
daybreak before lifting and/or scattering out through mid-day.
Additionally, with increased isentropic lift as relatively warm,
moist air advects over the cool surface ridge, clouds may also
develop in the 700mb to 850mb layer. Cannot rule out a brief period
of light rain/drizzle over the far western Piedmont as a result, but
for now expect that threat to be mainly west of the area. While
cloud cover this aft/eve should be a bit more scattered across the
SE half of central NC, broken/overcast skies are expected to prevail
over the NW. Temperatures this morning should generally range from
mid/upper 40s north to mid 50s south. Highs to range from mid 60s NW
to mid 70s SE. With continued isentropic lift over the NW Piedmont
tonight, expect cloud bases to lower once again, with a period of
light rain/drizzle possible. Elsewhere the weather should remain dry
through tonight. Lows tonight ranging from mid/upper 40s NE to mid
50s SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

Within a high amplitude mid-level ridge that will extend across the
ern US, a 319-320 dam anticyclone at 700 mb will become firmly
established over the Carolinas.

At the surface, 1035 mb, cP high centered just off the srn New
England coast at 12Z Sat will weaken and modify while drifting swd
and just off the Middle Atlantic coast through 12Z Sun, during which
time surface winds over cntl NC will veer from ely to sly.

A band of 700 mb-centered saturation and altocumulus will linger
across the srn Middle Atlantic, in generally nly flow around the
aforementioned anticyclone centered over the Carolinas. A
combination of that cloudiness and passing high-level moisture, some
remnant to strong-severe convection upstream across the Plains and
MS Valley, will yield partly to variably cloudy conditions over cntl
NC. Temperatures will moderate with modification of the surface high
and airmass, and veering surface flow, with highs ranging from upr
60s-low 70s across the nrn Coastal Plain and far ne Piedmont to
upper 70s-near 80 in the srn Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM Friday...

Unseasonably warm and mainly dry.

A slowly progressive, high amplitude ridge in the mid-levels will
drift across and offshore the South and Middle Atlantic through
Tuesday, downstream of a weak shortwave trough that will progress
through the region late Tue-Tue night. Low amplitude, quasi-zonal
flow will then prevail across the srn mid-latitudes and including
cntl NC through mid-late next week, poleward of an expansive sub-
tropical ridge that will extend from the swrn N. Atlantic wwd and
across the Gulf of Mexico.

At the surface, cP high pressure will continue to migrate swd along
and just offshore the Middle and South Atlantic coasts through early
next week. As the high drifts swd and steadily modifies, it will
direct warm sswly flow across cntl NC throughout mid-late next week.
It still appears the synoptic frontal zone will remain to the north
and west of cntl NC throughout the forecast period, while a pre-
frontal/lee trough will otherwise assume an average position across
the srn Middle Atlantic Piedmont. Only isolated, diurnally-driven
convection will result in cntl NC, with the relative best chance
over the far wrn NC Piedmont Tue afternoon-evening (~30 percent),
when the aforementioned weak shortwave trough moves across the
region and interacts with the lee trough there.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 AM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: Expect cigs to gradually become MVFR then IFR
from NNE to SSW over the next few hours. Lowest cigs at KRDU/KRWI,
possibly dropping below 500 ft. Cigs should lift/scatter through the
morning hours, with a return to VFR at all terminals by early aft.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to dominate through 03Z Sat, with a
redevelopment of some MVFR cigs and some light rain/drizzle will be
possible at KINT/KGSO during the last few hours of the TAF period.

Outlook: While the MVFR cigs will be most prevalent at KINT/KGSO
through Sat morn, cannot rule out some sct/bkn low stratus elsewhere
around daybreak Sat. While more uncertain at this time, there may
also be some borderline VFR/MVFR cigs Sun morn as well. Otherwise,
largely VFR conditions are expected through Tue. There is also a non-
zero chance for some patchy light rain, mainly in the Triad, Fri
night/Sat, otherwise generally dry weather is expected through Mon.
The next chance for showers will be Tue aft/eve.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KC