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000
FXUS61 KRLX 191658
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1258 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Passing cold front brings showers and storms through late this
evening. Cooler and drier this weekend, the slowly warming into
mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1258 PM Friday...

Cold front, currently near the Ohio River will continue to push east
this afternoon and evening, ending up east of the CWA late tonight.
Showers and storms will refire along this front, and some breaks in
the clouds have been noted, which will help to increase instability
and storm development this afternoon. Still a possibility for an
isolated strong to severe storm, mainly across southern portions of
the CWA, with a damaging wind risk the main threat.

Conditions will improve late tonight with some clearing possible.
Much in the way of fog development is not anticipated due to a light
wind lingering across the area before pressure gradient relaxes
towards morning. Saturday looks to be dry, with mid to high clouds
returning later in the period from a disturbance to our south
and west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Friday...

Quiet conditions are expected through the weekend as surface high
pressure slowly spreads east across the middle of the country whilst
Canadian Arctic high pressure largely respects the longest
undefended border.

Dry conditions with dew points near to below the freezing mark may
yield some patchy frost across the north Sunday morning with some
more extensive frost possible Monday morning as well

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 AM Friday...

High pressure shifts off to the east Monday putting the region back
into southwesterly flow Tuesday ahead of an approaching northern
stream low slated to arrive in the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night.
This should yield a brief return to mild conditions with daytime
highs across the lower elevations in the upper 60s to lower 70s amid
a modest uptick in precipitable water to around 3/4 of an inch. A
cold front associated with the aforementioned low will drag across
the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning yielding around a
third of an inch of rainfall averaged across the basin. Instability
looks rather meager, and coupled with overnight timing will cap any
chances for convection at slight.

Cooler northwesterly flow over Lake Erie in the wake of cold frontal
passage Wednesday likely yields at least some lake enhanced moisture
plume feeding into the region during the day with fairly steep low
level lapse rates through 5000 ft. Could see some low topped showers
with this activity at least through Wednesday afternoon.

Cool and dry air settles in Wednesday night with some additional
frost potential for Thursday morning.

The balance of the work week appears quiet with the next chance for
precipitation looming for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 651 AM Friday...

Radar imagery shows scattered showers arriving to NE KY and SE OH
early this morning, ahead of an approaching cold front. VFR
conditions are expected under light rain falling from an upper
cloud deck during the morning hours. However, embedded thunderstorms
could produce brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions into this
afternoon. Coded VCTS per uncertainty whether storms will hit
directly a terminal or not. Additional amendments will be
required.

The cold front crosses during the afternoon producing a gusty
wind shift from southwest to northeast at PKB, HTS and CRW
around 18Z, and CKB, EKN and BKW by 20Z.

Ceilings will become MVFR along the higher terrain and behind
FROPA, perhaps persisting through midnight. Drier conditions and
even clearing may spread from west to east behind the FROPA
with widespread VFR conditions prevailing across the western
terminals this afternoon and evening.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions
may vary from forecast.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR is expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...ARJ