584
FXUS61 KRLX 300733
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
333 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms today into
tonight. High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend
Wednesday into Friday. Warm and unsettled this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1005 PM Monday...

The forecast remains on track.

As of 720 PM Monday...

The forecast remains on track and no significant changes were
made at this time as quiet weather persists. Did however add
some more cloud coverage for tomorrow, especially during the
afternoon where some instability may get suppressed equating to
less thunderstorm coverage hopefully.

As of 145 PM Monday...

Dry conditions will continue for the most part tonight as a surface
high pressure slides east of the Appalachians. This will allow a
cold front to approach from the northwest early Tuesday morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible especially
Tuesday afternoon and evening with the frontal passage and the
aid of diurnal heating, available moisture and some deep layered
shear. Thunderstorms are not expected to become severe at this
time.

However, tall skinny soundings with PWATs about 1.5 inches (2
standard deviation from climatology) suggests heavy downpours
will be possible on Tuesday. WPC has painted the entire area
under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday.

The front briefly stalls across our north Tuesday evening,
before lifting north as a warm front.

Lows tonight will generally be in the mid to lower 60s, except mid
50s over the northeast mountains. Abundant cloudiness, increasing
winds, and cooling showers will keep afternoon temperatures in
the upper 70s to lower 80s for Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

High pressure brings dry weather Wednesday through Thursday
night. Dead low level flow in the wake of the wet weather in
the near term may result in areas of fog and stratus Wednesday
morning, especially east of the Ohio River. However, the
incoming air mass is quite dry from just above the surface on
up, so any morning clouds and fog will burn off, giving way to
sunshine for the balance of the day.

A weakening cold front approaches the middle Ohio Valley from
the northwest Wednesday night, but its associated mid-upper
level short wave trough passes north of the area as mid-upper
level ridging builds over the area. Nothing more than a few
clouds are forecast for portions of southeast Ohio Wednesday
night, and weak high pressure reestablishes for Thursday.

The high drifts east of the area Thursday night, giving way to
light southerly low level flow, but mid- upper level ridging
maintains dry weather.

Central guidance reflects temperatures remaining above normal
Wednesday, and then a return to very warm weather on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

To describe the weather heading into the weekend as being
affected by a cold front moving into the area is at odds with
the overall zeitgeist of the weather pattern heading into the
long term, in which we are moving into a warm and humid regime
as we move into the month of May.

The cold front does bring an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Saturday, with some diurnal
weakening overnight Friday night, but it washes out on
Saturday, as its associated mid-upper level short wave trough
dampens and lifts out to the northeast, and mid-upper level
ridging rebuilds over the area.

The air mass behind the cold front never really makes inroads
into the forecast area. Rather, warm and somewhat humid air
remains in place, and with weak mid-upper level ripples moving
through, the chance for showers, highest in the afternoon and
evening, when thunderstorms are also possible, continues into
next week.

Showers and thunderstorms not arriving or forming into Friday
afternoon allows morning heating and a very warm day until
interrupted by rain. High temperatures are suppressed a bit
Saturday by the high chance for rain, and to a lesser extent
beyond that, but remain modestly above normal. Lows also remain
above normal, as we settle into lower 60s to lower 80s for
diurnal ranges across the lowlands, and lower 50s to mid 60s
over the higher ridges, early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM Tuesday...

VFR through most of the morning (until ~13-15Z) with CIGs
gradually becoming more OVC from west to east. There remains the
chance for some fog at EKN, but not expecting much restrictions
as wind and cloud cover will likely interfere.

CIGs will start lowering by ~12Z as showers start approaching
our western periphery. CIGs look to remain mostly VFR through
the day, albeit low-end category, but some pockets of MVFR
will affect most sites especially in the afternoon. There does
remain the chance for some isolated thunderstorms from morning
through afternoon with heating so left VCTS in at most sites to
cover the possibility; more certainty remains in the afternoon
hours, especially for western most sites.

Will start to see showers and thunderstorms tapering off from
west to east by ~00Z, but chances will remain in the mountains
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. MVFR or IFR CIG restrictions
will likely remain across this area as well. Dense fog will be
a strong possibility at most sites Tuesday night into Wednesday
with recent rainfall across the area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog at EKN manifests to be more dense than
forecasted. Shower and thunderstorm timing and location could
vary from forecast. Ceilings could be lower than forecasted.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 04/30/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible due to dense fog Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...LTC