158
FXUS63 KSGF 010824
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
324 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low rain chances today (20 - 30%) with much higher chances
  Thursday (70-90%) including heavy rainfall which may lead to
  localized flooding.

- The unsettled weather pattern will persist into the weekend
  and early next week with highest chances on Saturday (50-60%
  chance).

- Temperatures will remain above average through at least the
  next seven days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis showed a broad west to southwest upper level flow
pattern from the Pacific into the southwest and central US. Low
level moisture was plentiful with a 30-45kt low level jet
pumping 1.2in precipitable water through the southern and
central Plains. Surface low pressure was strengthening across
the panhandle of Texas with a front stretching northeast through
Kansas into southern Missouri. Dewpoints were in the 60s south
of this front. A decaying MCS was located across northern
Oklahoma and has just grazed southeast Kansas and far southwest
Missouri. Higher instability southwest of the area has caused
the bulk of the higher precip to remain southwest of the area
with rainfall amounts less than 0.75in. Areas east of Highway 65
have seen little if any rainfall. A weak MCV/wake low was
located on the northern side of the decaying MCS across southern
Missouri (just north of SGF) and was causing some brief wind
gusts of 30-40mph. Temps remain mild in the middle to upper 60s.

Today: Warm air advection and orientation of the 850mb jet and
front should keep the majority of the showers and storms to our
southwest through the rest of the early morning hours. Since
precip amounts have remained low we will likely cancel the Flood
Watch early. The surface front will continue shifting north
today. Other than the front there does not appear to be any
strong forcing mechanism therefore precip chances look low
(less than 30 percent) and mainly confined to areas north of
I-44. Latest RAP guidance however does show a small
vort/shortwave rotating through this afternoon therefore will
need to monitor if this can be enough to develop some isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. While the airmass will be
unstable, the bulk shear looks weak therefore severe storms are
not expected. It will be warm again with highs in the lower 80s.

Tonight: Stronger upper level energy will move through the
northern Plains. A stronger low level jet looks to develop from
Oklahoma into Kansas and majority of high res ensembles develop
thunderstorms from western Oklahoma into central Kansas and far
northwest Missouri closer to the front and stronger lift. These
storms will weaken as they approach southeast Kansas and far
western Missouri after midnight with brief gusty winds possible
if they are able to survive into the area. The severe risk
remains marginal at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Thursday: The area will be in a favored upper level jet location
during the day as shortwave energy moves through and a front
approaches the area by afternoon or evening. Models are not
showing lot of instability, likely due to morning clouds.
However with upper level lift increasing, showers and
thunderstorms look to develop during the afternoon and continue
into the evening. PW values up to 1.5in and weak storm motions
look to promote efficient rainfall production therefore heavy
rainfall and localized flooding will be the main concern with
WPC showing the entire area in a Slight Risk for excessive
rainfall. 00z HREF LPMM precip amounts do show small pockets of
1-3 inches therefore will need to monitor for a potential Flood
Watch with future updates.

Friday: Surface high pressure looks to slide into Iowa with the
surface front pushing south to about the Missouri/Arkansas state
line. Other than the front, not seeing much forcing for lift
therefore precip chance during the day look to be around 30
percent or less.

Saturday through Tuesday: An unsettled pattern continues. A
shortwave trough looks to approach the area from the west on
Saturday with showers and thunderstorms moving through the area.
Given the majority of ensembles showing this, precip chances
are now between 50-60 percent. NBM continues to suggest only
10-20% chances for 1 inch of rain with this system and given the
progressive nature that appears reasonable. Quick on its heels
is under shortwave late in the day Sunday or Sunday night with
additional precip chances.

While ensemble variance exists, there is a signal for a stronger
system to emerge into the central plains next Monday into
Tuesday with additional precip chances. The latest CIPS analogs, CSU
probs and ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index/Shift of Tails all show
at least some signal for severe weather potential however
confidence is low at this range. Temperatures do look to remain
above average with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on a
daily basis.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A few showers and thunderstorms were moving through JLN and
approaching SGF however they are weakening and confidence is not
high that they will reach BBG. A brief period of gusty winds
will occur with variable winds likely through 12z. South winds
will then dominate through the rest of the period. There is a
low chance for a shower or storm this afternoon at the sites
however confidence is too low to include at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ066-077-088-093-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield