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000
FXUS64 KSHV 231740
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1240 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

No update is needed to the overnight forecast package at this
time.

/44/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Quiet morning for us in the wake of exiting high pressure of
1024mb edging into Georgia now. Return flow off the Gulf began
yesterday afternoon and several sites have a little light S/SE
wind present at this time. A little more wind can be found in E
TX with some gusts likely there later today. Guidance is all
close with a warm afternoon in the mid to upper 70s. Skies are
mostly clear now and will stay this way for a while with some high
clouds later on and some scattered fair wx cu with afternoon
heating.

Overnight air temps will start to see warmer readings with upper
50s and lower 60s as dew points continue upwards. Some morning low
clouds and patchy fog can be expected for daybreak on Wednesday
that will linger into the mid morning. The warmer start will edge
highs into the lower 80s for many of our sites. A broad upper
ridge over TX and the plains states will be slowly working our way
with rising heights locking in the warmer trend through the rest
of this week. A frontal boundary will drop down through the MS
River valley and tail end Charlie some convection over E OK and W
AR early on Wednesday for our northern tier of Counties early in
the day. This activity should remain rather tame with a General
Risk outlooked for us on the SPC day 2. This convection will sink
a little farther southward with weak NW flow and a cool pool
nudge down into E TX and N LA with peak heating. So slight and
chance pops return, but amounts should be fairly light with
limited moisture available until the next weekend push. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

This chance for rainfall will reestablish along I-30 as the
boundary touches and goes in a short term period. We will keep a
little unsettled across our northern tier for the remainder of the
work week as the boundary washes out. Then the next upper trough
will emerge off the front range with a lee surface low destined
for the high plains. Once again the tail end of the convective
push will sag much deeper into our area during Friday and
Saturday. Diminishing intensity and coverage of convection as the
parent low heads into the MidWestern and Great Lake States.

Then late in the weekend, the secondary upper low in a broad long
wave will usher the convective potential back into our area fully
for Sunday and Monday. We will see more real estate in our area
sporting a Slight Risk from SPC during this time. Once again
seeing evidence of the lifting storm track typical in mid to late
Spring. The WPC days 1-7 QPF have quite a gradient across our
region from inches in SE OK to goose eggs in the Parishes.
However, this is good to hang on to timely rainfall so as to
avoid pushing the limits of our high temperature records. We may
even have to return to the Drought Monitor for some of our
Parishes, where coverage will initially suffer until the sea
breeze becomes active along with daily pop up activity as the
Westerlies continue to run out of gas for our area during late
Spring. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions to continue through the afternoon, with an
afternoon cumulus field expected to develop and expand from west
to east around 4-5kft. This cu field is likely to become a
ceiling this evening, possibly accompanied by some mid level
clouds around 10kft. After midnight, expect lower level cloud
cover to develop, especially across E TX where MVFR ceilings are
likely, with the potential for IFR (about a 40% chance) and MVFR
visibility within areas of fog. Elsewhere, MVFR ceilings are
likely around daybreak, possibly with patchy fog. Winds will be
breezy this afternoon out of the south 10-12kts with gusts around
20kts, then easing after sunset but remaining southerly through
Wednesday morning 4-6kt.

Kovacik


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  82  65  85 /   0  20  10  10
MLU  57  81  61  85 /   0  20  10  10
DEQ  59  76  60  78 /  10  40  30  30
TXK  61  79  63  82 /  10  30  20  20
ELD  57  78  59  82 /   0  30  10  20
TYR  63  81  65  82 /   0  10   0   0
GGG  62  81  64  82 /   0  20  10  10
LFK  61  83  63  85 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...23