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000
FXUS64 KSJT 161816
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
116 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Early this afternoon, a dryline/Pacific front was situated over
far southeastern counties and will drift east of the area this
afternoon. This will be short lived, as low level moisture returns
across east and southeast counties overnight into Wednesday
morning. The dryline will re-establish itself over east and
southeast sections by Wednesday afternoon. Some of the CAMS are
developing some convection along the dryline late tomorrow
afternoon and evening. While confidence remains fairly low for
storms to develop tomorrow, given the signature in the CAMS, will
add low POPs across east and southeast sections late tomorrow
afternoon and early evening.

Temperatures will be mild again tonight, with lows in the upper
50s and low/mid 60s, warmest across the southeast. Temperatures
will be well above normal tomorrow, with highs mainly in the lower
90s, although some mid 90s will be possible across portions of
the northwest Hill Country.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Expect mainly hot and dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday due to
850 MB thermal ridge in the area. a low chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country
Thursday afternoon and evening. There will be moderate/strong
instability and good deep layer shear(0-6KM) so an isolated severe
storm or two is possible. The combination of a frontal boundary in
the area, overrunning and upper level disturbances moving by will
bring numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of
our area this weekend, with a medium to high chances of rain(50 to
90 percent) Saturday and Saturday night. The best chance for
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be across the Big Country,
Heartland and Northwest Hill Country. Expect mainly dry weather by
early next week. Expect much cooler temperatures this weekend with
highs in the 60s and 70s and then warming back up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period,
but some stratus is expected to devlop across the southern
terminals towards daybreak Wednesday. Will include some MVFR
ceilings at KJCT, KBBD and KSOA after 10Z, with ceilings
scattering out after 17Z. Expect mainly light winds the next
24 hours, except at KABI where west winds will gust near 20 knots
this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     60  91  66  93 /   0  10  10  10
San Angelo  60  93  66  97 /   0  10  10  10
Junction    65  97  68  97 /   0  20  20  20
Brownwood   62  89  65  92 /   0  20  20  30
Sweetwater  61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       61  90  67  94 /   0  10  10  10
Brady       65  90  68  93 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...24