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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

000
FXUS65 KSLC 212129
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
329 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring dry and very mild conditions
to Utah and southwest Wyoming today. A dry front will cool
temperatures slightly over northern Utah and southwest Wyoming
while temperatures stay quite unseasonably warm over southern
Utah. Temperatures will rebound Tuesday into Wednesday before a
cooler and more stormy pattern develops for the latter part of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION... A near zonal flow exists across the northern
Rockies region with a progressive short wave translating east
across the US/CA border, while ridging dominates the southern
Great Basin region attm. Continued easterly progression of the
aforementioned wave will drive a shallow boundary into northern
Utah tonight, but outside of subtly cooling temps, sensible
weather will remain dominated by the warm/dry/stable conditions
associated with the ridging.

The mean ridge position will shift overhead and east through
midweek driving a net warming trend, boosting temps back up to
roughly +15 degrees above climo Tue/Wed. Coincident, tonight`s
weak boundary will lift back north providing subtle enough
moisture convergence for isolated diurnal convection over the
higher terrain of the north...all this in advance of the first
trough of a net pattern change which will be approaching the SoCal
coast Wed/Thu.

Said trough will translate through the 4-corners region Thursday,
opening up and gradually filling as it does so, but also phasing
the western CONUS into a mean long wave trough regime. Widespread
showers/isolated storms likely by Thursday afternoon focused over
the northern tier of the area...becoming reinforced areawide
leading into Friday as the parent trough amplifies southeastward
across the Great Basin region leading into the weekend. Still some
spread, namely in amplitude as the trough further evolves.
Slight majority favor closing the trough off overhead, other
retain more of a progressive open wave...both outcomes fairly
bullish for precip, and much cooler temps with snow levels down to
somewhere between 7-7.5kft given current guidance at hand. Storm
totals encompassing both troughs pushing 1 inch rain in the
northern valleys, 1-2" additional snow water equivalent (SWE) in
the mountains..bulk of this accumulating during the Fri-Sat
period.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period with a few high clouds in the area. Northwest winds will give
way to southeast drainage winds around 3Z. A weak cold front
dropping across the region late this evening should turns winds back
to the northwest around 06Z, but confidence is low in timing and
duration of northwest winds. There is about a 30% chance that winds
become variable rather than consistent northerly, and a similar
chance that drainage southeast winds return by late tonight.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period. A weak cold front dropping south
across the region should turns winds back to the northwest during
the late evening and nighttime hours, primarily along a KDTA to KPVU
line and points north and west, with southwest winds otherwise. A
few more cumulus clouds are expected to build up tomorrow afternoon,
especially over the higher terrain north of I-70.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Merrill/Van Cleave

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity