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000
FXUS62 KTAE 201102
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
702 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

This morning we are watching satellite for fog and stratus
development which started primarily in the western FL Panhandle
and far southeastern FL Big Bend and has slowly spread north and
eastwards. At this time, only a handful of sites have fallen below
one mile, bouncing down to a quarter of a mile at times. It`s
quite possible we get widespread reduced visibilities; however,
satellite also shows high cloud racing in from the west. At this
time, confidence is too low to go with a Dense Fog Advisory, but
as we get closer to sunrise, we may need to issue one for a few
hours. Should the sunrise surprise fog happen, in addition to any
fog that developed before hand, it should quickly dissipate after
a couple of hours.

The attention then turns to the shower and thunderstorm threat
for today. A mid level a shortwave pushes in from the west, which
will slowly push a cold front that is currently well to our north
towards us. For this event, where favoring more of a high CAPE/low
shear event, which should keep storm mode in the cellular nature.
Damaging winds look to be the most likely of hazards, as shear
from 0-6km remains around 20-25kt. The SPC maintains a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather for SE AL and portions of
SW GA. The WPC briefly touched our western edge of the AL counties
with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall.
Current rainfall totals, for today and Sunday, max out around
0.5-1.0 inches for SE AL, 0.25- 0.75 across SW GA, 0.25-0.5" along
and north of I-10, and south of I- 10 0.1-0.25". Those amounts in
SE AL don`t necessarily correspond with Excessive Rain or flash
flooding, but it should be noted that PWATS look to be around 1.8
to 2.2 inches. Some hi-res guidance suggests the possibility of
3-5 inches of rain, should we be able to tap into that moisture
and perhaps have some training cells in SE AL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The upper level pattern will begin to push a cold front through
the region on Sunday, creating a more widespread chance for
showers and thunderstorms than Saturday. Although, the instability
for Sunday will be limited but more probable in the Florida Big
Bend region, while shear values will be decent enough for the
potential of an isolated strong to severe storm with damaging wind
gusts and hail possible. PoPs for Sunday are about 60-70% for
areas along and north of I-10 Sunday afternoon, and shift east
towards the Big Bend during the evening and overnight hours, with
PoPs decreasing to about 50%. Temperatures for our AL and
northwestern GA counties will be cooler on Sunday due to cloud
cover and rain, with highs expected to be in the upper 60s to low
70s. Elsewhere in the region, highs will be around 80. The cold
front will make its passage during the evening and overnight
hours, shifting the winds to the northwest and north. Temperatures
will respond accordingly, with high temperatures on Monday
forecast to be in the low to mid 70s. Potential radiational
cooling is expected Monday night as we will have clearing skies
and light northeasterly winds that will bring temperatures down to
the upper 40s and low 50s Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Frontal passage will be completed by the start of the Long Term.
Cool temperatures to start in the 50s for Tuesday morning and warm
to the mid to upper 70s by the afternoon. A surface high will be
holding steady over the region for the next several days which
will allow for a quick warmup back to the mid-80s for high
temperatures, with overnight lows warming to the mid-60s. No
measurable rain is expected for the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Stratus and fog have developed over portions of SE AL, the FL
counties, and the southern two rows of SW GA counties. Conditions
have bounced between LIFR and MVFR which will continue for the
next couple of hours. Then cig and vis should improve, with
showers and thunderstorms moving in for afternoon and evening.
The best chance for precipitation will be  over SE AL and SW GA,
though a few showers or storms could happen over SE AL. Chances
for precip come down during the late evening hours, with models
hinting at a break. Cigs and vis could drop again tonight
depending on the timing of precipitation ending.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Boating conditions will become a little rough Sunday afternoon
through Monday as scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
ahead of a cold front. Elevated winds and seas are likely with
thunderstorms and cautionary conditions may be possible following
the cold front late Sunday evening through early Monday. Winds and
seas will become favorable again heading into Tuesday, and should
remain pleasant through the rest of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The main fire weather concerns over the period will be possible
low dispersions in SE AL today and then high dispersions for SE
AL, the FL Panhandle, and western FL Big Bend counties on Monday.
Outside of that, look for wetter weather is forecast today and
tomorrow, with a front working its way through on Sunday. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible today for areas north of I-10,
particularly favoring the AL and GA counties. Tomorrow, as the
front moves through, all of the service area has should see rain,
with pockets of wetting rain possible. After that, expect a period
of drier weather.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Rain chances begin to increase today through Sunday night. The
systems will be moving somewhat quickly with rainfall
accumulations not expected to exceed 1.0 inches, although isolated
higher amounts may be possible.

In addition to the Apalachicola, St Marks, Withlacoochee,
Aucilla, and Ochlockonee rivers remaining in flood, the Suwanee
has now risen into flood at Rock Creek, Luraville, and Branford.
Expect possible rises to continue down the Suwannee with
additional points possibly reaching flood in the days ahead.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  65  80  56 /  20  10  60  30
Panama City   80  66  76  54 /  10  10  60  20
Dothan        84  60  69  50 /  50  30  70  10
Albany        85  62  70  52 /  50  40  80  20
Valdosta      86  66  80  55 /  30  30  60  40
Cross City    84  62  82  58 /   0   0  30  40
Apalachicola  78  68  77  57 /   0   0  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery