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000
FXUS65 KTFX 172033
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
233 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A cool northwesterly flow aloft will continue the chances for light
snow in most areas through the rest of the day today. Though snow
will continue to fall, confidence in impacts remains low given warm
surfaces from last weekends much above average temperatures. Cooler
than average temperatures persist through Friday, with a gradual
warmup thereafter.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Friday night... The core of an upper level disturbance will
progress eastward, away from the Northern Rockies through the rest
of the week, but leave the region under a cool northwesterly flow
aloft. The result will be for cool temperatures and lingering light
snow through the rest of the daytime hours today, with opportunities
for snow showers Thursday and Friday, mainly over the mountains.
Additional snowfall in the Little Belts of an inch or two is
forecast through early evening, but webcams are showing even where
snowfall rates are higher, relatively warm surfaces are resulting
in only wet roads. Although more localized instances of slick
roads will be around, the expectation is that no additional Winter
Weather Advisories will be necessary. Trends will continue to be
monitored this afternoon and evening.

Breezy northwesterly surface winds will be around through the
remainder of the day, but given minimal snow accumulations on the
plains, concerns for widespread blowing/drifting snow have decreased
greatly. Gusty winds will subside this evening.

As mentioned before, cooler than average temperatures persist
through the rest of the week, with the best chances for snow showers
residing over terrain each of the next couple afternoons.

Saturday into next week... Upper level ridging will attempt to
build in this weekend, but an upper level disturbance will flatten
the ridge on Sunday. The result this weekend into Monday will be for
daytime highs to trend warmer, with Sunday featuring breezy westerly
winds, especially on the plains. The chance for 50 mph gusts in the
Cut Bank and Browning areas is around 40%.

Ensemble guidance favors upper level ridging fully building in
early next week, allowing temperatures to climb back above average.
Uncertainty arises toward the middle of next week, where there is
some disagreement on the location and strength of an upper level
disturbance off the west coast of the CONUS. -AM

&&

.AVIATION...
1202 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024 (17/18Z TAF Period)

A broad trough will maintain a cold and relatively moist
northwesterly flow aloft for at least the next 24 hours. Snow and
associated MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions, most widespread over North-
central Montana, will slowly improve as the afternoon progresses. A
more scattered brand of snow shower activity is then expected this
evening into the overnight hours, mostly impacting areas near higher
terrain. Flight categories will continue to trend towards MVFR/VFR
tonight, with Southwest and the eastern portions of North-central
Montana being most likely to hang onto MVFR clouds and mountain
obscuration. - RCG

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  21  39  19  36 /  20   0   0   0
CTB  19  36  17  33 /  20   0   0   0
HLN  25  46  23  43 /  10  20  10   0
BZN  15  44  15  44 /  10  10  20   0
WYS   3  39  12  43 /   0  10   0   0
DLN  20  43  21  43 /  40  10  10   0
HVR  22  40  20  39 /  30   0   0  10
LWT  18  34  14  32 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls