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000
FXUS63 KTOP 192326
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
626 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost and freezing temperatures possible Sunday morning.

- An active week ahead with several chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A weak backdoor cold front will slowly sag southward across the
area this evening. At the same time, some weak mid-level waves
riding the zonal flow aloft will move overhead. This boundary
and mid-level ascent could be enough for some light
precipitation to develop this evening/overnight. Forecast
soundings depict a fairly dry boundary-layer, so some/most
precipitation may struggle to even reach the ground.

Surface high pressure builds in Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Cloud cover could limit how far temperatures fall
across most of the area, but with clearing sky and light wind
across northern Kansas, temperatures may fall to near or
slightly below freezing. A frost advisory or freeze warning may
be needed for northern Kansas Sunday morning as a result.

An upper-level low is forecast to move out of the northern
Plains Monday into Tuesday and drag a cold front through the
central Plains. The 12 UTC suite of models are in relatively
good agreement with bringing the front through Monday night.
There may be enough instability ahead of the front for some
stronger thunderstorms. While models agree pretty well on the
timing of the front, they vary widely with the amount of
available moisture to work with and coverage of any
precipitation. At this time, it appears there is a decent chance
(40-50%) of at least getting some measurable precipitation out
of this system.

For the last half of the week, a deep trough is forecast to dig
across the western CONUS and lead to a Colorado low developing.
There is still significant uncertainty to the timing and track
of this system, but it appears to be the next best chance at
severe weather for the central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR expected at all sites this period. North-northeast winds
veer slightly to more of a northeasterly direction tonight and
will increase briefly to around 10 kts. There is a slight chance
for light rain near KMHK late tonight and early Saturday, but
dry air beneath a mid-level cloud base could prevent much from
reaching the ground. Thus, have kept mention of rain out of
TAFs.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Teefey