Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FNUS73 KTOP 281903
FWSTOP

SPOT FORECAST for Shawnee/Wabaunsee County Fire...Shawnee County EM
National Weather Service Topeka KS
203 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1500 CDT on March 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

Winds will remain sustained between 10-15 mph out of the southwest with gusts to 25 mph at
times this afternoon. RH values for the remainder of the afternoon
will hover between 25-30%.Winds will begin to weak around 8 PM to around
10 mph out of the south. RHs will begin to recover above 40% around 8 PM as well.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........69 at forecast start...Max 70.
RH..................30 percent at forecast start...Min 28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds southwest at 16 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise Southwest winds 16 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL at forecast start...otherwise 6200
                    ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /137400 knot-ft/ at forecast start.
                    Max...excellent /147700 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at forecast start...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR MCR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0
Temp............69  70  70
RH..............30  29  28
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..16  17  16
20 FT wind gust.22  23  22
Mix hgt (kft)...6.0 6.2 5.9
Haines index....6   6   6
SDspl kt-ft/1000137 148 135

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear then becoming mostly cloudy.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Temperature.........Min 49.
RH..................Max 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 9 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    late in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (114600 knot-ft) decreasing to fair
                    (13700 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing
                    to poor (7100 knot-ft) late in the night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  MCLEAR PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      10
Temp............69     62     55     52     51     51
RH..............29     38     51     56     61     67
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..15     9      9      10     11     12
20 FT wind gust.22     15     16     20     20     23
Mix hgt (ft)....5000   500    500    500    500    600
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/1000115    7      8      9      10     11

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 74.
RH..................Min 41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 11 to 20 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 19 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Gusts
                    up to 33 mph.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (108600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............50        53        69        74
RH..............74        75        45        42
20 FT wind dir..S         S         S         SW
20 FT wind spd..15        17        20        21
20 FT wind gust.23        28        29        29
Mix hgt (ft)....700       1600      2900      4100
Haines index....5         6         5         4
SDspl kt-ft/100014        40        74        103

$$
Forecaster...Griesemer
Requested by...Nelson Casteel
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2408791.0/TOP
.DELDT 03/28/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nelson.casteel@snco.us


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