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000
FXUS64 KTSA 160515
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1215 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 829 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Scattered showers have developed across southeast OK and portions
of northwest AR this evening but so far minimal thunderstorm
activity has been observed. Gusty southerly winds continue across
the area in response to the robust pressure gradient. Although the
near surface layer is quite moist, a subsident layer above is
keeping convection quite capped at the moment. Additionally, as
the air is much drier above the surface, CAMs have been
indicating the possibility of even gustier winds as rain
evaporates and cools in this dry layer. Accordingly, local wind
gusts up to 50 mph or so could occur this evening.

The low level jet will increase the next few hours, improving
shear profiles and advecting a more favorable profile below 800
hPa or so. Additional lift from an advancing shortwave should be
sufficient to kick off showers and thunderstorms across the area.
With the evening update lowered rain chances just slightly as
coverage looks to be a little bit less, but still kept a good
portion of northeast OK above a 50% chance. The probability of
severe weather is not high, but there will be sufficient wind
shear and instability for a modest threat of damaging winds and
hail (10-15% chance) in a few spots. An isolated tornado could
also occur (5% chance). Storm activity will move out of Oklahoma
near daybreak, hanging on across northwest AR a few additional
hours before ending.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Quiet weather is expected Wednesday, but moisture return will be
underway as the Tuesday boundary washes out. A cold front will
advance southeast across the area Thursday in response to height
falls across the north-central CONUS. This front will impinge on
an increasingly moist and unstable airmass and yield an elevated
severe storm threat. Today`s data suggests this boundary will
stall over northern TX/ArkLaTex. After a lull in the action
Friday, warm advection north of this boundary and ahead of a
secondary cold frontal push from the north will lead to another
round of showers and storms Friday night into Saturday. Model QPF
signals suggest potential for locally heavy rainfall and possibly
some localized flooding as well. The secondary front will clear
things out by Sunday, and the start of next week will be below-
average cool. In fact, the typical cool valley sites across NE OK
and NW AR could drop into the 30s by next Monday morning.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

MVFR conditions are common early this morning across eastern
Oklahoma with VFR conditions across western Arkansas. MVFR
conditions will likely be area-wide over the next few hours
with isolated to scattered showers/storms impacting area sites
into the mid-morning hours. VFR conditions are expected to
return Tuesday afternoon behind a Pacific front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  56  85  62 /  30   0   0  10
FSM   82  62  87  63 /  60   0   0  10
MLC   85  58  86  65 /  30   0   0  10
BVO   83  52  83  55 /  30   0   0  10
FYV   80  57  84  58 /  60   0   0  10
BYV   78  60  82  58 /  50   0   0  10
MKO   82  57  83  62 /  40   0   0  10
MIO   81  55  80  58 /  60   0   0  20
F10   82  56  84  64 /  30   0   0  10
HHW   81  63  84  64 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...10