866
FXUS64 KTSA 300529
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The current forecast remains on track with only slight changes for
the evening update. While current low temps are on the colder side
of guidance, primarily for western forecast zones, clear skies and
calm winds under sfc high pressure should allow for overnight lows
in the 50s. Sfc winds become light out of the south across our
western-most zones later tonight, and this may hold temps slightly
warmer than the rest of the FA. Otherwise, patchy fog may develop
tonight... particularly across SE Oklahoma and NW AR... where dew
point depressions & winds will be the lowest and overlap with the
axis of heavier rainfall from the past few days. The remainder of
the forecast appears to be in good shape at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A few showers are bubbling across portions of southeast Oklahoma
in the vicinity of the front that remains stretched across far
southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. This activity should
shift eastward before sunset along with the movement of an upper
level disturbance. Otherwise, expect a seasonably cool night,
given the influence of surface high pressure in the area. Patchy
fog will be possible once again late tonight and into tomorrow
morning in parts of southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas,
considering the position of the surface ridge axis tonight and
existing surface moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Gusty south to southwest winds will develop tomorrow as the
surface high shifts east and a low pressure system approaches from
the west. Expect above normal temperatures tomorrow. The front
associated with the low pressure will approach the Oklahoma border
tomorrow afternoon and evening, providing a potential focus for
thunderstorms in parts of northeast Oklahoma late afternoon and
evening. Ample instability is forecast northwest of I-44 by mid
to late afternoon, although a cap may hinder development this far
south during the afternoon. An expected thunderstorm complex in
Kansas may drop southward into parts of northeast Oklahoma,
especially toward Wednesday morning hence slightly higher POPs in
the evening and overnight, extending into Wednesday morning as
well. Isolated thunderstorms could also develop well to the west
along the dryline tomorrow afternoon and evening, but are likely
to diminish before reaching eastern Oklahoma. Into Wednesday and
Wednesday night, additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms
may develop along the front near the Kansas border and also in
southeast Oklahoma in response to a weak disturbance and
increasing theta-e advection.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms remain on track for
Thursday and into Thursday night in advance of a cold front moving
through the area. Heavy rain appears likely with these storms
given the forecast precipitable water values, with already
saturated grounds favoring potential for flooding. A Flood Watch
may be needed in the next day or two if these signals continue. In
addition to the heavy rain and flooding potential, severe weather
may accompany them as well, with forecast instability favoring
portions of southeast Oklahoma.

Uncertainty exists regarding whether the front will completely
clear the area or not, leading to low shower and thunderstorm
chances persisting into Friday. The front should lift northward
Friday night and into Saturday, bringing additional showers and
thunderstorms. A repeat of the above may occur Sunday and into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Skies will be clear and winds will be light through Tuesday
morning. During the day Tuesday, southerly winds will strengthen
and become a bit gusty during the afternoon (15-25 kts). Breezy
conditions will persist into the evening, though speeds may
diminish slightly.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected near or just north of KBVO
between 3-6Z Tuesday evening, with a 30% chance of impacting the
terminal. The main impacts would be strong gusty winds, heavy
rain, and lightning. There is a 10-20% chance the gusty outflow
winds from any storms could impact KTUL or KRVS during this same
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   86  64  84  66 /  10  20  30  40
FSM   87  62  85  68 /   0   0  20  20
MLC   86  65  81  67 /   0  10  30  30
BVO   86  60  84  64 /  10  30  40  40
FYV   84  61  82  65 /   0  10  20  20
BYV   83  60  84  65 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   84  62  84  65 /   0  10  20  30
MIO   82  61  83  65 /   0  30  20  30
F10   84  63  83  66 /   0  10  30  40
HHW   82  62  83  66 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...06