National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KTWC 150846
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
146 AM MST Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds are expected this afternoon across
southeastern Arizona, especially east of Tucson. Cooler today,
then a warming trend through the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A low pressure system pushing through the region
north of our area will bring cooler temperatures and gusty winds
this afternoon, with strongest winds east of Tucson closer to the
New Mexico border. Dry this far south, with any rain chances well
north of our area.

Broad high pressure will try to build in from the west the rest of
the week, however the flow will buckle a bit with the ridge losing
significant amplitude as it pushes in. Still strong net gains in
heights and thicknesses to support a strong warming trend with
Tucson Metro temps back above 90 by Thursday. Temperatures should
then remain 5 to 10 degrees above climo into early next week.

Ensemble means are hinting at negative height anomalies again
later in the month, this time likely more of a southern branch
split scenario off the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 16/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds above 20k feet, clearing from the west after
16/12Z. Winds generally under 10 kts this morning, then gradually
increase again after 16Z, becoming westerly at 12-20 kts with
gusts 30-35 kts. Strongest winds east of KTUS including KDUG and
KSAD. Winds diminishing after 16/02Z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry across Southeast Arizona with above
normal temperatures most of the week. Min RH values generally
below 15% in valleys. Strong gusty winds today, with the
strongest 15-30 mph east of Tucson. Some areas could see brief
critical to near critical fire weather conditions east of Tucson,
today, but fire danger and ERCs are still low for this time of
year.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson