Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 260552 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1252 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 910 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Removed most of the overnight and early morning pops as
significant dry air below 700mb is keeping showers from
materializing upstream.

UPDATE Issued at 654 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

With high clouds streaming overhead, increased sky cover across
the region through the night. Otherwise, forecast is on track this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Sfc high pressure, centered southeast of the area will continue to
drift away as the next weather system approaches from the northwest.
A fairly vigorous upper trough and sfc cold front will slide across
the Dakotas tonight into Thursday morning. This will deliver some
changes to our weather in terms of winds, some pcpn and to a certain
extent the temperatures. The most impact from this system will be
the winds. This will be the most noticeable change coming compared
to pcpn and temps. The sfc front is progged to move into the north
and west cwa around midnight and then progress fairly quickly to the
southeast thru the early to mid morning hours. A brief period of
some strong northwest winds will be possible right behind the
frontal passage. Some light rain shower activity behind the front
will also be possible overnight into the early morning hours.

Once the front clears the area by mid-late morning, any cloud cover
left behind will decrease as temps start out around 40. With another
day of some good mixing, we should see some gusty northwest winds
ramp back up by late morning through afternoon. High temperatures
should be muted somewhat in the cooler airmass with daytime readings
getting close to normal if not falling just a bit short.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

At 00Z Friday a series of 500mb troughs extend from northern Canada
through the western Great Lakes, IA, KS, and the southeastern U.S.
An additional low was situated off the Pacific coastline, with a
sizable ridge over the Intermountain West.
At the surface, we`ll be stuck in between a sfc high to our
southwest, and low pressure across southern Manitoba. Expect the
Canadian low to sink southeast across MN Friday morning, while
dragging a secondary trough/cold front over our forecast area. Dry
high pressure will then build in Friday afternoon into early
Saturday, before exiting east.

Expect 500mb northwesterly flow to continue aloft through Saturday
morning, at which time, the western ridge will slide across the
Plains States. The ridge will remain in place through much of the
weekend, before progressing east, as the coastal low stretches out
to our west. Look for the warmest temperatures to set up Sunday into
Monday, with temperatures rising into the 70s to around 80 degrees.
Windy conditions expected Sunday, with gusts of 30-35kts at a
minimum, in between the large sfc high to our east, and nearing sfc
low stretching from MT through eastern WY. Stay tuned as the
forecast becomes more fine tuned for this period.

The slow moving 500mb trough will set up across MT Sunday night
through Monday, and slide into the Dakotas later Tuesday. The
highest chance of precipitation, and potentially thunderstorms,
should be Monday night into Tuesday as the low to our west spreads
across the Central and Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A cold front
dropping across the region tonight will bring north winds of 15 to
25 knots with gusts to 30 to 35 knots at all locations. The winds
will decrease late this afternoon and evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Vipond
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Mohr



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