Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS61 KBTV 250514

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
114 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018

A trough of low pressure aloft will prevail across the North
Country this weekend with below normal temperatures and a few
scattered snow shower expected. Given the lack of moisture any
snowfall will be light and under an inch. Temperatures will be
mainly in the 30s today, but warm into the 40s to lower 50s by
Tuesday with increasing amounts of sunshine. Our next weather
maker impacts our region with rain showers Wednesday into
Thursday with temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s.


As of 103 AM EDT Sunday...Moisture continues to advect back into
central/eastern VT this morning with crnt obs/radar showing a
band of light snow impacting northern/eastern VT.
Newport/Highgate and Caledonia all reporting 3 to 5sm in light
snow. Thinking this will pivot back toward the cpv/eastern
dacks before slowly dissipating over the region by sunrise. Only
a dusting expecting and still some dry air here in the
initially precip might have difficulties reaching the ground.
Temps are all over the place with SLK down to 7f and parts of
eastern areas in the mid 20s with more clouds. Have left alone
for now as clouds/precip will impact temps overnight.

Prior discussion...Latest low level WV imagery really shows the
story as the upper level trough over Quebec continues to push
south. There`s a really sharp gradient in the moisture aloft so
whereas much of eastern New England has cloud cover the North
Country really only has some scattered cumulus clouds. The cold
air advection aloft continues to push into the region and so I
think we`ve either topped out or will only warm a degree or so
through the rest of the day before temps start cooling back off.

The next short wave that will bring a chance of showers to the
region is interesting because while it lack moisture, the
dynamics, as the previous forecast mentioned, look fairly
strong. The best energy will track west with over Lake Ontario
with the best moisture east generally over New Hampshire.
There`s a small window in which a spoke of energy pulls back
west into the parent upper level trough and when that happens I
anticipate snow showers moving from east to west across the
Northeast Kingdom and into the Champlain Valley. Given the low
pwats and lack of sufficient moisture its likely more of a high
PoP low qpf event where much of northeastern Vermont will see
snow but not much in the way of accumulation. Anticipate
generally a dusting with up to an inch of new snow.

Heading into Sunday the clouds will be clearing as the dry air
from an advancing ridge starts to build in. We`ll still be under
cold air advection so temps will only warm into the mid 30s but
with sunny skies that will feel quite pleasant as another sign
of Spring starting to arrive across the North Country. The
clearing skies and decoupling winds overnight will lead to another
chilly night Sunday night. Strong radiational cooling will occur
with single digits to teens for the North Country. I`ve
continued the idea from the past couple of days worth of
forecasters in going well below forecast guidance for temps
Sunday night. Anticipate a low at Saranac Lake and the Northeast
Kingdom in the ball park of -1F to 3F which would be about 20
degrees below normal.


As of 325 PM EDT Saturday...High pressure settles in right over
the area for Monday and Monday night. Should see plenty of
sunshine, light winds, dry weather and lower dew points...which
will allow for a good diurnal swing in temperatures and we
should finally see above normal temperatures with highs
generally in the 40s. One more cool night Monday night with
clear skies and light winds resulting in lows generally in the
15 to 25 degree range...but some single digits in the northern
Adirondacks and far northeast Vermont.


As of 325 PM EDT Saturday...Southwest flow aloft develops over
the area and persists through much of the week. Warm air
advection and increasing moisture will result in above normal
temperatures through the week with highs in the 40s...and some
spots hitting 50 degrees on Tuesday and Thursday. The increasing
moisture means more clouds across the area and thus low
temperatures will not be as cold as the past couple of days with
most night generally in the 30s. Precipitation chances will
also be increasing as a result of the southwest flow aloft and
looking at the Tuesday night through Thursday night period as
the main window for chances of rain showers...with some snow
showers at night. Looks like by Saturday we transition out of
the southwest flow pattern and cooler and drier air moves in for


Through 06Z Monday...Current radar and obs show a band of light
snow impacting northern/eastern Vt this morning with vis between
3-5sm. The best mid level moisture continues to be progged from
the eastern dacks into VT...while best upper level forcing from
s/w energy is located over northern NY. Based on progged
NAM/HRRR and BTV 4km composite reflectivity thinking a band of
light snow will impact pbg/btv/mpv and slk between 06-09z this
morning. Have continued to utilize tempo with mvfr vis and cigs
expected. A brief 30 to 30 minute window of ifr vis of 1 to 2sm
possible at mpv...but confidence is low given dry airmass in low
levels. Otherwise...lingering light snow will dissipate by
sunrise with cigs quickly becoming vfr by midday. Expect vfr
conditions from 16z thru 06z Monday for all taf sites with
north/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots...becoming light trrn driven


Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.




NEAR TERM...Deal/Taber
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Taber is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.