Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 261513
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1113 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast from New England into the Canadian
Maritimes this afternoon. Lingering showers across central New York
will give way to sunshine from west to east as high pressure builds
across the Lower Great Lakes. Two more weak systems will then bring
additional periods of rain showers Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure across New England will exit northeast across the
Canadian Maritimes this afternoon, as high pressure and much drier
air builds eastward across New York. KTYX radar shows lingering
showers east of Lake Ontario due to the closer proximity of the low
and lingering upslope flow but are expected to diminish through this
afternoon.

Increasing subsidence and drying associated with surface ridging
expanding across western New York will continue a west to east
clearing trend near midday. Otherwise, a lingering pressure gradient
will keep breezy conditions in place, with afternoon highs expected
to mostly range through the 50s.

Dry weather is expected tonight with high pressure building over New
York, as there will be a brief break before the next system arrives.
Clear skies will lead to temperatures falling into the mid 30s to
lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Two areas of weak low pressure will approach the Northeast Friday,
the first one will track across the Great Lakes with an associated
cold front. The other, which is deeper of the two, will track from
southern VA to southern New England. Mid-high level clouds will
increase from the west and south Friday. Exiting high pressure
and dry air will keep the region mostly dry. The one exception
will be across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes as rain brushes
the eastern side of the forecast area. As the cold front nears from
the west Friday, rain showers will form ahead of it. A shortwave
trough will also approach from the Ohio Valley and showers will
enter Western NY Friday evening. Rain showers will move to the north-
northeast, near the eastern Lake Ontario shoreline. Temperatures
will drop into the mid to upper 30s to low 40s Friday night.

The Great Lakes low and the coastal low will merge near, if not
overhead Saturday. Rain is expected to blossom as a cold front moves
through the eastern Great Lakes. An anomalously upper-level trough
will spin overhead through the end of the weekend. Cold air will
advect southward and multiple rounds of precipitation are through
Sunday night. Cold air advection, wrap-around moisture and lake
enhancement will lead to rain showers changing to snow showers late
Saturday night and into Sunday as temperatures drop to the
U20s/L30s. Rain and snow showers will taper off into Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The anomalously cold upper-level trough will exit the region into
the Canadian Maritimes late Monday. Meanwhile, building 500mb
heights and an expansive surface high over the Tennessee Valley will
become centered along the Carolinas which will initiate a
strong warming trend across our region. The surface high along
the Carolinas will pump up a much warmer air mass into the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes which will send high temperatures soaring
some +15- 20F degrees above climo by Wednesday with mid- upper
70s, even a few 80F readings. Late in the week, latest guidance
shows a potent shortwave dropping southeast out of Canada across
the Great lakes while several waves ride northeast along a
frontal boundary to our west. This will likely bring increasing
chances for showers Thursday and Friday. Otherwise, look for
relatively quite weather the first half of the week with dry
conditions and more like summer.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure over New England will lift into the Canadian Maritimes
this afternoon. In its wake, high pressure and much drier air will
build eastward into the region.

Wraparound moisture behind the low will maintain some lingering
showers east of Lake Ontario in vicinity of KART along with IFR
ceilings. Further west, cigs have largely become VFR with drier air
shifting into western NY. Weak high pressure shifting over our
region will promote VFR tonight.

Outlook...
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain or snow showers east of
Lake Ontario.
Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface low pressure over New England with lift into the Canadian
Maritimes this afternoon, with steady westerly winds in its wake.
This has led to sufficient waves on the southern and eastern shores
of Lake Ontario for Small Craft Advisories today into tonight.
Lighter winds and waves are then expected through Friday, with waves
perhaps building again under westerly flow on Saturday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LOZ043.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Smith/TMA
NEAR TERM...Smith/TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Smith/TMA
MARINE...Smith/TMA



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