Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 242219
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
619 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide east into the open Atlantic tonight. Low
pressure will approach from the southwest Wednesday into Wednesday
night and track across our region on Thursday. the low will lift
north of the Maritimes Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
605 PM Update: Latest late aftn/erly eve obsvd temps/dwpts and
obsvd hi temps were incorporated to update fcst hrly temps/dwpts
into the ovrngt hrs with no chgs to fcst ovrngt lows attm. Also,
based on trends seen from 18z Models, we slowed the onset of
rnfl on Wed across Nrn/Ern ptns of the FA by a few hrs, with
far Nern ptns of the FA not likely to see measurable rnfl until
Wed eve due to the remnant presence of dry sub-cld air ovr this
ptn of the FA.

Orgnl Disc: An strong upper level ridge of high pressure will
crest over the area this evidence. The resulting subsidence and
a warming southwest wind have produced widespread 70F readings
for the first time since last October. The notable exception was
along the coast where onshore winds dominated. A combination of
increasing high clouds and a fairly steady southwest wind will
keep temperatures above 40F tonight. Clouds will thicken and
lower Wednesday ahead of emerging low pressure in the Mid-
Atlantic states. An initial round of rain may break out by
midday in the upslope regions of Piscataquis County, but the
main event will move in late in the day towards southern
Penobscot County and Hancock County. Rain may hold off all day
towards northern Aroostook County. Highs will range from the
lower 50s along the coast where onshore flow will dominate to
nearly 60F in the Crown of Maine where precip will hold off
through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will lift north through western New England Wednesday
night bringing rain, drizzle, fog and a mild and moist southeasterly
flow. Rainfall combined with snow melt from the humid wind will
result in considerable snow melt and rises on the rivers. An
additional half inch of rain is likely overnight. The warm moist air
over the cold surfaces will likely result in fog, especially late
Wednesday night once the air has moistened. Rain and fog will
continue into Thursday morning, ending late morning Downeast and mid
afternoon over the north as drier air wrapping into the storms
circulation surges in. Showers may back into western areas late in
the day as the upper low swings into the area. The low will quickly
lift away Thursday night with clearing to follow as high pressure
builds in. This will be followed by a sunny and mild start on
Friday. A rapidly moving and somewhat disorganized low will quickly
lift northeast Friday afternoon bringing increasing clouds followed
by some showers late Friday into Friday night. Most of the showers
will be likely in western areas where a frontal boundary will be
forming as the low lifts north.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will track north on Saturday while a weak trailing
frontal boundary across our area brings variable clouds and some
showers. The low level air will remain warm and highs Saturday will
likely be well into the upper 50s across the area. A cold front will
push across the region Saturday evening followed by cooler
conditions on Sunday. Upper level low pressure and cold air aloft
will result in lots of stratocumulus and some showers Sunday into
Sunday night. High pressure should then build in on Sunday bringing
a return of sunshine and seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are forecast into Wednesday morning.
MVFR cigs will move inland from the coast during the morning.
IFR cigs will then tend to form towards BHB and BGR after midday
as rain arrives. The IFR cigs will move north towards the
remainder of the sites during the evening.

SHORT TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds, rain and fog are
expected Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Conditions
should improve to VFR Downeast and MVFR across the north
Thursday afternoon. MVFR conditions over the north and VFR
conditions Downeast are likely Thursday evening. Conditions
should then be VFR late Thursday night through Friday as high
pressure moves across. Conditions may lower to MVFR Friday
evening in lower clouds and showers, possibly dropping to IFR
late Friday night. MVFR to occasionally VFR conditions are
likely Saturday with some showers still possible.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: There may be a few gusts up to 25 kts this evening,
but these winds are not expected to be sustained and will not
prompt an SCA. After winds drop off later tonight, winds and
seas will gradually pick up later Wednesday with an approaching
frontal system. With stable conditions expected over the cold
waters, have tweaked gusts downward in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed Wednesday night for
south winds gusting up to 30 kt. Fog will likely result in low
visibilities Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Winds should
drop below SCA Thursday morning as low pressure lifts north of
the waters, and remain below SCA Through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Freeze dried fine fuels, gusty southwest winds, and low relative
humidity led to an increase in Maine Forest Service`s fire
danger risk to moderate and prompted a Special Weather Statement
for the elevated risk until 6PM. Maine Forest Service has
reported numerous small fires this afternoon with these
favorable conditions. Tomorrow`s clouds and rain are expected to
dampen activity on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Satellite imagery and ground reports indicate little ice
remaining on the Aroostook River, but the Saint John River still
has some ice-covered areas...and with today`s warm
temperatures...ice is currently moving as evidenced by
hydrographs. The ice is rotted such that it`s not highly
conducive to prolonged jamming and the threat is not considered
to be high. On the other hand, the combination of snow melt and
rainfall is generating a more tangible threat by Thursday
afternoon into Friday. With forecast QPF in northern zones in
the range between 1.25 to 1.5 inches, rivers such as the
Aroostook, Saint John, northern portions of the Penobscot and
Mattawamkeag will trend towards minor flooding levels. If QPF
forecasts increase for Wednesday into Thursday evening, strong
consideration will be needed for a Flood Watch in the northern
zones...covering the aforementioned rivers as moderate flooding
becomes a risk. There`s still sufficient snow cover in northern
Aroostook to create issues...and it`s fully ripened after
today`s warmth. Melting will continue non-stop into Sunday
night. Overall, the biggest potential risk will be for the Saint
John River.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...VJN/Bloomer
Marine...VJN/Bloomer
Fire Weather...MCW
Hydrology...MCW



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