Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 270008
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
708 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 00Z aviation cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

Tonight...Mostly VFR. Onshore flow will continue through the
evening hours before decreasing and becoming light and variable at
most terminals. A few pockets of MVFR stratus and localized IFR ground
fog may develop - mostly KVCT. High confidence overall.

Sunday...VFR. Clear out restrictions by late morning giving way to
sunny skies and continued south-southeast flow. High confidence.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 351 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday night)...

The upper level ridge axis will move a little closer to the region
on Sunday. Models show low level thermal profile will continue to
warm slightly. Hot temperatures in store over the Brush Country
with triple digits expected west of a line from Kingsville to
George West Sunday. High at Laredo not expected to reach the
record of 110 but 107 will be hot enough. Highs in the upper 90s
would normally reach a record at Victoria but the record for
tomorrow is 102. Afternoon heat index values are expected to
exceed 105 degrees over most of the Brush Country, the inland
southern Coastal Bend, and the Victoria Crossroads Sunday
afternoon. Expect patchy fog will again develop over the inland
coastal plains late tonight with better chance for fog in the VCT
area. Should see a repeat episode late Sunday night also. The
swells will be adequately high on Sunday to maintain a moderate
risk of rip currents this holiday weekend for gulf facing beaches.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

Unseasonably hot conditions are expected for Memorial Day and
through the end of next week. This is in part to the mid level ridge
which will continue to have a stronghold over South Texas, only to
strengthen even further while Alberto moves closer to the northern
Gulf Coast states. Temperatures will warm into the 90s across the
Coastal Plains to near 100-107 degrees across the Brush Country, or
roughly east of Highway 281, as H925-H85 temps warm to 25-30+C mix
down to the surface. These warmer conditions will also make it
possible for climate sites at Corpus Christi and Victoria to reach
and possibly exceed record highs. With this strong capping along
with limited moisture, not expecting much in the way of rain.

In addition, as Alberto continues to move north into the eastern
Gulf, generated swells and increased swell periods should stretch
far west reaching the Texas coast early next week. The longer period
swells may lead to wave runup on area beaches, with minor coastal
flooding possible. Additionally, the rip current risk will likely be
elevated through early in the week due to these swells.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    73  94  73  97  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          72  97  72  99  74  /   0  10   0   0   0
Laredo            77 107  77 106  77  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             71 101  71 102  73  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          76  91  77  93  78  /   0  10   0  10  10
Cotulla           72 105  74 105  75  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        72  99  72 101  74  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       77  91  77  92  79  /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION



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