Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 271020
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
520 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.UPDATE...

A few showers have popped west of Madison in an axis of elevated
moisture combined with a mid level trough moving through. This is
all elevated stuff and so far pretty minor. Some guidance wants
to continue to expand these showers/storms this morning as that
moisture and trough move through. Most of the guidance is dry.
I`ll probably toss in isolated stuff given what`s occurring.

The new 06z runs of the NAM/GFS bring the remnants of subtropical
storm Alberto much farther west by Wednesday. This would suggest a
wetter scenario that what we currently have going. This will get
assessed in greater detail later today.

&&

.AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. We are
watching some isolated showers west of Madison. These could drift
into the airport early this morning. A lake breeze will bring
southeast winds to KMKE/KENW by by 17-18z today, similar to
yesterday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 245 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018)

DISCUSSION...

Today and tonight...Forecast confidence is high.

The heat builds by a few degrees today compared to yesterday.
Dewpoints will also mix out similar to yesterday, so the lower
relative humidity will keep the heat index similar to the actual
temp. We could hit record highs away from the lake, but a lake
breeze will bring some cooler air to those lake shore areas by
early afternoon.

Some of the guidance is trying to fire off some showers/storms
along a weak wind shift axis over south central areas. There is
also a subtle mid level trough pushing over the top of the
building mid level ridge. But, soundings show a dearth of
moisture. For now, suspect we`ll see some towering cu develop, but
dry air entrainment should keep them from producing any rain. So,
will keep it dry for now.

Another quiet and warm night tonight.

Memorial Day and Tuesday - Confidence...Medium
Main story will continue to be the unseasonably warm and near
record setting warmth. 588DM ridge will continue to expand across
the area this period. 925 temps will be in the 25-27c range for
Monday with some lowering in the east on Tuesday as more of a
sustained onshore flow sets up. However for much of the area it
will continue very warm. Heat indices deep into the 90s especially
for Memorial Day. Continued low level anticyclonic flow combined
with the lingering influence of mid level high, suggests low
confidence in any precip development on Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF
are generating QPF in the western cwa though despite the
continued high CAPE environment the forcing looks limited at best.
So any chance would likely be west of Madison in the afternoon
and perhaps well west. The NAM is dry and this seems plausible.

Wednesday and Thursday - Confidence...Medium
Forecast will hinge on how the remnants of Alberto play out. There
is still a northward push in the models to bring it up close to
our area and then peel it eastward. This scenario would bring the
western periphery into eastern WI for Wednesday into Wednesday
evening. The influence of an approaching trough would be felt
around here on Thursday. Temps will be further modified this
period with the breakdown of the mid/upper high and more
clouds/precip chances.

Friday and Saturday - Confidence...Medium
Models in decent agreement that surface ridging will take hold
again. Meanwhile heights will build again though lower level flow
around the high to the north will keep the 925 temps from any sort
of rebound for the time being.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. A lake breeze will bring southeast winds to KMKE/KENW by
by 17-18z today, similar to yesterday.

MARINE...Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory
levels through the middle of the week. There will be lake breezes
over the next few days as well.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Davis
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Monday THROUGH Saturday...Collar



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