Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 210901
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
501 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Increasing Rain Chances through Tuesday...

TODAY...The coastal surface trough just inland from the east
coast at 3 am will continue to move westward through sunrise as
strengthening low level easterly flow envelops the entire forecast
area into the afternoon as high pressure moves eastward off the
mid Atlantic coast. At the mid levels a weak shortwave at H5
should move southeast toward the Treasure coast this afternoon
from the northwest. Mid level temps remain cool at -11 to -12 degs
C at 500 mbs with low level ESE flow strengthening and advecting
deeper low level moisture over the area. High resolution short
range guidance indicates the likely development of an Atlantic
convergence band that should move onshore across Brevard county
today and push into the interior toward the WNW this afternoon.
GFS/NAM CAPE and LI progs support very low thunder chances with
any deeper convection that can get going into the mid to late
afternoon so will add a low thunder chance from Orlando and
Brevard vicinity southward. Breezy to windy conditions will
develop over much of the area this afternoon and will raise
a Lake Windy Advisory for all zones except Lake and Okeechobee
counties. At east central Florida beaches...rough surf is expected
with a moderate risk for strong rip currents. A Beach Hazards
statement will be in effect until 8 pm this evening. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 70s for coastal Volusia to the lower 80s
for Orlando to Vero Beach and in the mid 80s across Okeechobee
county.

TONIGHT...Breezy easterly flow into the evening will veer to the
ESE overnight. Will continue a low thunder chance across the srn
half of the area into mid evening though most of the convection
should be showers with continue activity moving onshore from the
Atlantic. Some of the higher resolution guidance indicates a
nocturnal heavy rain threat along the central east central Florida
coast across Indian River, Brevard into southeast Volusia county
through the night as convection may focus near the east coast as
the low level flow veers to the southeast and increases to 30
knots at 925 mbs. Lows will range from mid to upper 60s across the
interior to around 70/lower 70s along the Treasure coast.

SUN-MON...An increasing fetch of easterlies will bristle the local
maritime onshore flow as high pressure transitions seaward off the
U.S. Mid-Atlantic Seaboard and New England coast. Deepening moisture
will gather around the southern periphery funneling across the
Bahamas toward the FL coast. Enhanced wind flow will keep local
conditions on the breezy side Sun, particularly along the coast.
Meanwhile, a mid-level cut-off will wobble and roll into the Deep South
to assist with a developing sfc low in the same general vicinity.
The response will be to maintain the enhanced wind flow which will
progressively veer SE-S into Mon. Rain chances will be 50-60 percent
Sun increasing into Mon to 70-80 percent. Max temps in the M70s-L80s
Sun and then U70s-M80s Mon. Overnight min temps M60s inland to
around 70 at the coast.

TUE-FRI...Aformentioned mid-level cut-off gets kicked NE by the next
dropping wave while also filling. Together, this will help move along
the sfc low toward the Mid-Atlantic and drive a cold front south down
the peninsula Tue reaching the Straits by Wed morn. Showers and some
storms ahead of the front, but then winds will turn WNW behind the
boundary as drying ensues curbing rain chances. Max temps will easily
find the L80s in the drier air and increasing sun angles. Min temps
will generally be in the 60s, cooler inland and north. This places
temps in about the normal range. Late in the week, long range models
suggest another disturbance may have bearing. Will return a modest
mention of showers, but allowing for a measure of uncertainty relative
to timing and extent.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGs for nrn terminals should gradually lift or break up into
mid morning with mainly VFR CIGs during the late morning/afternoon
hours as scattered showers begin to move onshore from the Atlantic.
Have included VCSH for most terminals for the daytime hours. Lower
CIGs are expected to redevelop tonight in the MVFR range mainly from
Melbourne northward with a continued shower chance through the
evening and then transitioning to the east coast overnight as
Atlantic showers focus mainly from KVRB-KDAB overnight.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...Easterly winds will increase to 20-25 knots nrn waters to
around 20 knots across the south into the afternoon with seas
building to 7-9 feet offshore. Hazardous marine conditions for
small craft are expected.

TONIGHT...East winds will continue around 20 knots overnight with
seas 6-8 ft. Small craft advisory conditions will continue.

SUN-MON...Poor to hazardous boating conditions as fresh onshore
winds are maintained by a long easterly fetch around the southern
periphery of a high pressure area moving off the U.S. Seaboard north
of the forecast waters. Winds will veer SE overnight and then SSE-S
for Mon. Increased chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms
through the period. SCA conditions with seas 6-8 ft nearshore and up
to 9 ft offshore for Sun, then 5-7 ft nearshore and up to 8 ft on
Mon.

TUE-WED...Despite an expected frontal passage Tue, decreasing winds
become SW-W-WNW as seas eventually relax below advisory levels by Wed.
Seas 4-6 ft nearshore subsiding to 3-4 ft by Wed. Offshore, seas will
be a bit slower to dampen from 6-8 ft on Tue to 4-6 ft Wed where small
craft may still need to exercise caution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  67  76  68 /  50  50  60  60
MCO  83  67  81  68 /  60  50  60  50
MLB  80  71  79  70 /  60  50  60  60
VRB  81  70  81  69 /  50  50  60  60
LEE  82  67  81  67 /  50  40  50  50
SFB  80  65  80  67 /  50  50  60  50
ORL  82  67  80  67 /  50  50  60  50
FPR  82  70  80  69 /  40  40  60  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Volusia County-Indian River-Inland Volusia County-
     Martin-Northern Brevard County-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-
     Southern Brevard County-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County
     Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT Sunday
     for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRV
LONG TERM....DWS


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