Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 202004
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
304 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...An inverted weak upper trough
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, north Florida, southern Alabama
and southwest Georgia will continue to move slowly northward, with
an upper weak closed low likely forming over the western Florida
panhandle and much of south Alabama by Monday morning. The surface
ridge extending from the western Atlantic across the southeast
states and northern gulf will persist, however there will be a
very weak easterly wave will move slowly over the northeastern
gulf over the next 24 hours. A light east to southeast wind flow
will remain through noon Monday.

The ongoing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
persist through mid evening, and dissipate by midnight. Some
isolated storms this evening could develop moderate convection, with
winds up to 40 mph. In addition, a moderate Rip Current Risk will
continue through tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop again Monday across the
entire forecast area, with precipitation chances ranging from 50 to
70 percent. Both of the GFS and NAM have MLCapes ranging from 700-
1200 J/kg by early Monday afternoon, so a few of the storms could
become strong with winds up to 40 mph. /22

.SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...A modest
upper trof over the area gradually retreats into the central Gulf
during the period as a Plains upper ridge begins to advance into
the eastern states. A weak surface reflection trof will be
present over the area on Tuesday which will aid in convective
generation and expect scattered to numerous showers and storms to
develop. While this feature dissipates Tuesday night, a surface
low which passes well to the north brings another weak surface
trof into the central Gulf coast states which lingers through
Wednesday. When the upper trof retreats into the central Gulf, an
inverted surface trof is expected to develop with this feature
over the central Gulf (possibly from a weak/remnant tropical
wave), extending from a potential surface low near the Yucatan
Peninsula. Low level convergence along the weak surface trof over
the forecast area may be enhanced a bit on Wednesday due to the
development of this feature. As such, have gone with likely pops
for most of the area on Wednesday. May see some strong storms
develop each day. /29

.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...An interesting forecast
pattern is in store for the region. An upper ridge weakens while
continuing eastward across the eastern states early in the period
and is followed by an amplifying upper trof which moves from the
north central states into the eastern states through Sunday.
During this evolution, the weak upper trof over the central Gulf
strengthens somewhat and advances northward to the central Gulf
coast. There is a large amount of uncertainty as to what will
transpire with relation to the inverted surface trof which
previously developed over the central Gulf area including the
possible surface low near the Yucatan. Some guidance advances the
surface low northward across the Gulf to the north central Gulf
coast Saturday into Sunday while other guidance has no Gulf
development.  As a compromise, expect a surface trof to persist
over the central Gulf through much of the period and will have to
continue to monitor. Given the uncertainty, have continued with
good chance pops each day through the period. /29

&&

.MARINE...Currently a weak surface ridge will persist over the
southeast through the middle of next week. While at the same time a
series of weak inverted troughs move across the northeast Gulf of
Mexico. As a result, winds will be easterly to southeasterly tonight
through Monday, then they become more consistently onshore through
the remainder of the forecast period. Expect rain and thunderstorm
chances to exist everyday through Friday. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      66  87  69  88  69  88  68  88 /  50  70  30  50  40  50  40  50
Pensacola   68  84  71  86  72  86  70  87 /  50  70  50  50  40  50  40  50
Destin      72  80  72  84  73  82  74  83 /  50  70  50  50  40  50  40  50
Evergreen   65  84  67  87  69  86  67  87 /  50  70  40  60  40  60  40  50
Waynesboro  66  84  66  89  67  86  68  86 /  50  50  30  50  30  50  30  40
Camden      66  83  68  86  68  85  67  86 /  50  60  40  50  30  60  30  50
Crestview   65  83  68  88  68  86  67  87 /  50  70  50  60  40  60  40  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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