289
FXUS62 KTAE 071053
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
653 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

A bit of fog remains possible early this morning thanks to clear
skies, calm winds, and ample surface moisture. However, confidence
wasn`t quite there to issue a Dense Fog Advisory at this time
(3:30am EDT). We`ll continue to monitor satellite trends and surface
obs in case that changes around sunrise.

An H5 ridge builds over the region throughout the day. This will
limit rain chances to 20 percent at best along the sea breeze this
afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower 90s for
much of the area this afternoon before cooling into the upper 60s to
lower 70s tonight. There is also the potential for some patchy fog
again later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

On Wednesday, the ridge axis over the area begins to get pushed
off to the east as a trough tries to drop southward across the
northern Plains. Part of the trough gets cutoff over the southwest
CONUS on Thursday, but the rest of it continues to swing eastward
over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front over the
southern Plains on Wednesday is forecast to push eastward
Wednesday night into Thursday. However, the displacement of the
trough well to the north will lead to the northern portion of the
front making far more eastward progress than the southern extent
and result in a fairly west to east oriented front across the Gulf
Coast states by Thursday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast along and ahead of the front Thursday, with a potential
MCS moving into the area from the west sometime Thursday
afternoon. While strong to severe storms may be possible with this
feature, a weakening low level jet should lead to the MCS
weakening as it moves into our area.

A lull in convection is likely in the wake of this first round
before another round of strong to severe storms beginning in the
early morning hours Friday. As long as there is enough instability
recovery after the first round of storms, this second round
appears to pose the greater severe threat. By Friday morning, the
low level jet begins to strengthen over the area again, the mid
level trough axis is digging into the southeast CONUS, and the
region becomes positioned within the right entrance region of an
upper jet. This combination could lead to a blossoming of strong
to severe thunderstorms in the predawn hours Friday and lasting
into the early afternoon when the trough finally pushes the front
through the area. The primary hazards with this event are damaging
winds, tornadoes, and locally heavy rainfall. SPC has the area
outlooked in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather in
the predawn hours Friday morning. Forecast rainfall totals for
this event aren`t super impressive at this point, however I
suspect they will increase over the coming days. Forecast PWs are
near 1.8 to 2.0 inches along with a frontal boundary oriented
parallel to the mean flow, which is usually a favorable setup for
training of storms and subsequent heavy rainfall. WPC has the area
in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall both
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Once the front moves through the area, more seasonable conditions
return. Offshore winds are expected to prevail throughout the
weekend, with relatively dry conditions expected outside of the
daily seabreeze showers and storms. Highs are forecast in the
upper 70s to mid 80s immediately after the front Saturday, warming
to the low to mid 80s Sunday and Monday. Lows are forecast in the
upper 50s to low 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Low stratus/fog will be the main concerns at the start of the TAF
period with intermittent IFR to LIFR conditions expected. Any low
stratus/fog should begin to lift and mix out by 13Z and mostly
dissipate by 15Z at the latest. Once it does, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through late morning and into the afternoon and
early evening. There is the potential for another round of IFR,
maybe even LIFR ceilings and/or visibility early Wednesday morning
at all TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

A high pressure ridge will extend from from south of Bermuda
across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. Gentle southerly
breezes will slowly increase to moderate southerlies as we move
through the middle of the week. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase Thursday night into Friday night as a
cold front approaches. The front is expected to pass the waters
Friday night with northwest winds in its wake. Seas will generally
be 2 to 3 feet this week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

High pressure building over the region will bring minimal rain
chances the next couple of days. Daytime highs climb into the lower
90s away from the immediate coast each afternoon through Thursday
with heat indices pushing into the middle 90s. High dispersions are
expected the next couple of days due to the combination of
southwesterly transport winds at 15 to 20 mph and mixing heights of
4,500 to 5,500 feet. A cold front is forecast to near the region as
early as late Thursday with rain chances increasing late Thursday
and into Friday. Patchy to areas of fog are possible this morning
and again Wednesday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

The main concern is rainfall centered on Friday ahead of the next
cold front. The highest amounts are expected in the AL/GA counties
where WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, but this
threat may shift southward into the FL counties in subsequent
forecasts. On the rivers, there are no flooding concerns at this
time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  71  90  72 /  10   0  10   0
Panama City   84  74  85  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        92  71  91  73 /   0   0  10   0
Albany        91  69  92  71 /   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      92  69  92  71 /   0   0  10   0
Cross City    88  68  89  69 /  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  81  75  82  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...LF