Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 221956
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
356 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

...Dry and warm conditions Wednesday...

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will dominate northern lower
Michigan`s weather through Thursday, providing dry conditions and
temperatures into the low to mid 80s. Relative humidity and
temperature values will reach critical thresholds Wednesday with
relative humidity values a bit higher Thursday. Temperatures
remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s through the rest of the holiday
weekend and into the beginning of the next work week. Rain/thunder
chances return Friday morning and remain through at least Sunday
and possibly into Monday.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-230845-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
356 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 14 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 58-63 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent...except 52-57 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier...except 2 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (550).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (600).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-230845-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
356 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......28 percent drier...except 11 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northeast in the afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (740).
Mixing Height.......6600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    west after midnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent...except 55-60 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (610).
Mixing Height.......6200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-230845-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
356 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer...except 5 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier...except 12 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (450).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the south around
                    3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent...except 62-67 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (490).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-230845-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
356 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 63-68 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer...except 6 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......25 percent drier...except 18 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (410).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 68-73 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent...except 49-54 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (500).
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-230845-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
356 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........27-32 percent.
   24 HR Trend......27 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (850).
Mixing Height.......8400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....80-85.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (710).
Mixing Height.......7000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.MEMORIAL DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

TL



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