Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 261503
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Evergreen Pines Opening...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1103 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 EDT on April 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure was crossing lower Michigan this
morning, providing mostly clear skies. We will become partly
cloudy as the day proceeds, but any chance for precipitation will
wait until tonight, just after a cold front moves through. These
showers will be mostly rain, but could mix with snow late. A few
showers could linger into early Friday, otherwise the threat for
precipitation ends, but we will see cool weather Friday and
Saturday.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Temperature.........59 at ignition...Max 65.
RH..................19 percent at ignition...Min 16 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds.
Mixing height.......500-2200 ft AGL increasing to 5100-5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 mph.
Vent rate...........Good /400 at ignition. Max...good /500/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6   17  33  38
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............59  61  61  63
RH..............19  19  19  16
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   4   4
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.5 4.9 5.1 5.2
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.8   9   9   10
Haines index....5   5   5   5
VRate/100.......4   4   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers after midnight. Scattered rain showers
                    early in the morning.
Temperature.........Min 36.
RH..................Max 92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......3600-5300 ft AGL decreasing to 1100-2300 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 13 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor to excellent (100-600).
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........20  16  28  39  41  50  48  58  54  60  67  73
Weather cov.....                                ISO ISO ISO SCT
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............61  59  56  52  48  45  43  41  39  38  38  37
RH..............20  26  34  44  56  68  67  67  70  73  73  75
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..4   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...5.3 5.2 4.7 3.6 2.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4
Transp wind dir.W   W   SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.12  13  13  12  10  9   10  12  13  13  13  12
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   3   3   2   2
VRate/100.......6   6   6   4   2   1   1   1   2   2   2   2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly sunny (45-55 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers until late afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 55.
RH..................Min 41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100-2900 ft AGL increasing to 3500-4400 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 13 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor to excellent (100-600).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........78     89     75     65     48     51
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............37     36     39     45     52     55
RH..............79     92     85     68     48     41
20 ft wind......NW 3   NW 4   NW 5   NW 5   NW 6   NW 5
20 ft wind gust.5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   1100   1400   2100   2900   4000
Transport wind..NW 12  NW 10  NW 12  NW 12  NW 12  NW 13
Haines index....2      2      3      4      3      3
VRate/100.......1      1      2      2      3      5

$$
Forecaster...Monique Runyan
Requested by...Matthew Malesic
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807973.0/APX



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