Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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738
FNUS73 KILX 261124
FWSILX

Spot Forecast for Flood debris burn piles...USFWS
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
624 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (217) 732-3089 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Light and variable winds will shift to westerly up
to 5 mph by afternoon as high pressure drifts to the southeast of
the area. Winds will continue to increase through Friday, becoming
gusty up to 25 mph by Friday afternoon. Ventilation rates/smoke
dispersal will be poor initially, improving during the afternoon
as mixing heights and transport winds increase. No precipitation
is expected for the next several days.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west around 5 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300-2200 ft AGL increasing to 5700-6200 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 7 mph shifting to the west 7 to 9
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (5800-50600 knot-ft).
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (5800-50600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........3      9      19     31     19
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............M      M      M      M      M
Temp............51     59     65     67     69
RH..............59     44     34     30     30
20 ft wind......S 3    SW 2   W 2    W 3    W 5
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   3400   5700   6200   6000
Transport wind..S 5    SW 7   W 7    W 8    W 9
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4
VRate kt-ft/10006      19     34     44     51
SDspl kt-ft/10006      19     34     44     51

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming northwest 5 to 7
                    mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......5100-5800 ft AGL decreasing to 0-1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 10 mph shifting to the northwest 15
                    to 18 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (9200-51600 knot-ft) decreasing to
                    poor to fair (0-16000 knot-ft) in the late
                    evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (9200-51600 knot-ft) decreasing to
                    poor to fair (0-16000 knot-ft) in the late
                    evening and overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........10     17     28     53     47     32
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............M      M      M      M      M      M
Temp............68     64     59     54     51     49
RH..............32     40     49     57     63     66
20 ft wind......W 5    W 2    W 3    W 5    NW 7   N 7
20 ft wind gust.       5      5             10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....5800   3500   200    BLW100 400    1000
Transport wind..W 10   W 8    SW 5   W 5    W 10   N 18
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      2
VRate kt-ft/100052     26     1      0      4      16
SDspl kt-ft/100052     26     1      0      4      16

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 12 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph.
Mixing height.......400-1700 ft AGL increasing to 6000-7400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 21 mph increasing to 24 to 25 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (5200-39300 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (135800 knot-ft).
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (5200-39300 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (135800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........17     8      3      6      7      8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      10     10
LAL.............M      M      M      M      M      M
Temp............46     47     55     62     66     68
RH..............73     71     53     39     33     32
20 ft wind......NW 7   NW 7   NW 7   W 7    W 9    W 12
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     10     15     25
Mix hgt (ft)....400    1700   4500   5600   6700   7400
Transport wind..N 15   N 13   NW 16  NW 16  W 18   W 24
Haines index....4      5      5      4      4      5
VRate kt-ft/10005      19     62     76     108    152
SDspl kt-ft/10005      19     62     76     108    152

$$
Forecaster...37
Requested by...David Jones
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807902.0/ILX
.EMAIL David_jones@fws.gov



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