Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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520
FNUS74 KMOB 251226
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for Price  burn...WSM Eglin AFB
National Weather Service Mobile AL
726 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on May 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...An unsettled weather pattern expected for the
next several days with high chances of showers and storms.
Frequent lightning and brief strong wind gusts of varying
direction will be the main threat to control burn operations.
Daily dispersion today generally fair.

Fog potential and other remarks...Patchy late night fog possible
in some areas.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers
                    and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 1300, then 16-25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 6 to 8 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 2900-4200 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height (m)...Increasing to 884-1280
                    meters AGL in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 9 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 1 to 4 meters/second.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 25.
LVORI...............Decreasing to 3.
Stability class.....2.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........53  47  41  41  51  51  51  48  50  63  64
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  40  40  40  40  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
Temp............71  74  78  81  82  83  84  83  84  85  84
RH..............100 93  85  79  77  72  70  72  70  67  67
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   4   6   6   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.            4   6   7   10  10  11  11  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2
Mix hgt (km)....0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  E   E   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.3   5   5   5   6   7   8   8   8   8   9
Trans wind dir..NE  NE  E   E   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).1   2   2   2   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
Dispersion idx..5   8   11  14  17  22  21  23  24  24  25
LVORI...........8   6   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely early in the evening, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................16-25 strikes until 1900, then 9-15 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 71.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......Decreasing to 600-1200 ft AGL.
Mixing height (m)...Decreasing to 183-366 meters AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 9 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Southeast 1 to 4 meters/second.
Dispersion index....Decreasing to 4.
LVORI...............Increasing 6 to 8.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........62  59  57  56  59  52  53  54  53  58  60  70
Weather cov.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
LAL.............4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............82  80  78  77  75  75  74  74  72  72  71  71
RH..............72  77  82  85  87  87  90  90  97  97  100 100
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   5   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.10  7   6   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 2.7 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7
Mix hgt (km)....1.3 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  E   SE
Transp wind spd.9   8   7   6   5   5   6   6   5   3   3   3
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  E   SE
Trans spd (m/s).4   4   3   3   2   2   3   3   2   1   1   1
Dispersion idx..26  8   6   5   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
LVORI...........3   4   4   5   6   6   6   7   7   8   8   8

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning,
                    then showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 0700, then >25 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......Increasing to 3000-3600 ft AGL late in the morning.
Mixing height (m)...Increasing to 914-1097 meters AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 13 mph increasing to around 15
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.Southeast 2 to 6 meters/second increasing to
                    around 7 meters/second late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 33.
LVORI...............Decreasing to 3.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........84  94  91  91  96  86  75  65  67  69  72  75
Weather cov.....CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Chc of pcpn (%).30  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80  80
LAL.............3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Temp............71  71  76  79  82  83  84  84  84  83  82  81
RH..............100 100 85  77  72  70  67  67  67  70  72  72
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..3   3   4   4   5   6   6   7   7   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.4   4   5   6   7   8   10  10  11  11  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4
Mix hgt (km)....0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.5   6   7   7   8   8   9   9   10  12  13  15
Trans wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Trans spd (m/s).2   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   5   6   7
Dispersion idx..4   12  16  19  21  22  25  28  28  29  30  33
LVORI...........8   6   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...10
Requested by...Jerry Coon
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810641.0/MOB
.DELDT 05/25/18
.EMAIL jerry.coon@us.af.mil



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