Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 230011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230011
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-230115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0284
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Areas affected...portions of the FL panhandle...extreme southeast
AL...extreme southwest GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 56...

Valid 230011Z - 230115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 56 continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest short-term tornado risk will likely focus
near the maritime/warm front in the AL-GA-FL tri-state region.

DISCUSSION...Latest subjective surface analysis places a warm front
from Apalachee Bay northwest near Tallahassee and into southeast AL.
 A very moist airmass with weak buoyancy (590 J/kg MLCAPE per the
evening TLH RAOB) characterizes this area.  Surface dewpoints are in
the upper 60s-70 degrees F range along and south of the boundary and
in the middle 60s east and northeast of the boundary.  As stronger
updrafts move northeast within the warm conveyer convective plume
and interact within the warm frontal zone, the backed low-level flow
and augmented hodographs will support a greater threat for low-level
mesocyclones and the possibility for a couple of weak/short-track
supercell tornadoes.  The main concern/uncertainty at this time is
the cessation of the tornado risk and the watch expiration time.
Either a local watch extension-in-time or a watch replacement may
need to be considered in the next 60-90 minutes since the watch
expires at 9PM CDT/10PM EDT.

..Smith.. 04/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

LAT...LON   30368468 30998532 31458504 31418455 30648417 30368468




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