Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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FXUS61 KPBZ 280429
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1229 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building over the Upper Ohio River Valley will
bring dry and seasonable temperatures Thursday and Friday. A
series of low pressure systems are then expected to bring
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms Saturday through
Wednesday to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Slowly decreasing cloud cover overnight.
- Near seasonal temperatures expected behind a cold front.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Midnight Update: Western edge of the cirrus shield with patchy
low stratocu lingering underneath runs from across the northern
WV panhandle across northwest PA. Patchy stratocu is likely to
slowly erode from the west through early morning with continued
dry/cold low- level advection, though upper cirrus may linger
across PA into Thursday afternoon. Touched up sky and
temperature grids with the latest hi-res blend, but no
significant changes were needed for the near term.

Previous...
Low-level cold advection is underway in northwest flow behind a
cold front. Overall moisture levels are decreasing, with much of
the region expected to come in below 0.2 inch precipitable water
values by 12Z. Still, some cloud cover will linger for several
more hours in western PA and northern WV as boundary layer
cooling and lingering moisture help to keep some patchy
stratocumulus in the region.

Still expecting below-freezing low temperatures for locations to
the north and west of Pittsburgh, with the cold advection
supporting temperatures not too far from seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues Thursday and Friday.
- Near-seasonable temperatures are expected.
- Gusty west to northwest winds expected over eastern Tucker
  County WV ridges Friday afternoon/evening

------------------------------------------------------------------

Upper trough remains west of the area and heights are expected
to fall about 50 meters at 500 mb overnight. However, the
southern tail of trough is where the most vigorous falls are
expected in GA, with this area spreading toward eastern North
Carolina on Thursday with 150 meter height falls.

The associated wave of low pressure will track far south and
east of our area, with surface ridge building in and keeping
things dry with seasonable temperatures.

Heights rise about 100 meters Friday and Friday night as flow
turns from northwest to westerly aloft. GFS and NAM show 60-65
knot winds at 850 mb in mountain wave just east of Tucker County
WV, and NBM probabilities of at least 41 knot surface gusts are
50-90% over far eastern Tucker County. Typically most of the
strongest gusts would be downstream of the County, but expect
the ridges to get quite windy with 45 to 55 mph gusts likely at
the Dolly Sods Mesonet site.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Fast westerly flow aloft to bring a series of weak low
  pressure systems with showers and thunderstorms much of the
  period.
- Above-average temperatures are expected.
- Rainfall totals Saturday to Wednesday of 2-4 inches expected
  from Morgantown WV to Tucker County WV.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Westerly flow and flat ridging expected Saturday through Monday
with gradually building heights which will reach about 5640
meters by Monday. Multi-model ensembles now coming into better
agreement in phasing of northern branch and southern branch
troughs Tuesday with modest height falls followed by 100-150
meter falls Tuesday night.

Warm advection ahead of a weak low moving through the Ohio
Valley Saturday should bring showers to the area. A brief break
is expected Sunday in the wake of the low as front drops just
south and stalls. Another surge of warm advection with the returning
front is then expected by Sunday night with rounds of showers
and thunderstorms likely along and north of the west-east
boundary Monday and Monday night.

As a phasing and deepening trough creates a deeper low on
Tuesday, a more vigorous system closes out the wet period with
cooler northwest flow expected by Wednesday as the low pushes
east of area.

CSU MLP shows increasing severe risk Monday into Tuesday in the
Ohio Valley. The excessive rain component also shows potential
increasing Monday in the Ohio area for heavy rainfall. NBM has
increasing probabilities of 2"+ over the northern WV portion of
the forecast area and there is certainly concern for 2-4" of
rain down in the Morgantown WV, Preston, and Tucker County areas
for possible flooding or flash flooding issues.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Patchy MVFR stratocu was developing in cold advection. Most of
these clouds were east of a FKL-HLG line. Will include TEMPO
MVFR for most airports east of that line overnight. Any
lingering MVFR stratocu should quickly dissipate around sunrise
as surface high pressure builds in.

NW at 5-10kt wind will continue overnight. A few gusts up to
20kt are possible Thursday with mixing.

.Outlook...
VFR is expected through Friday night, though a weak shortwave
could bring brief restrictions to MGW late Thursday night.
Widespread restrictions and showers return Saturday with
crossing low pressure. VFR returns Sunday under high pressure,
before restrictions in rain return with a Monday warm front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Craven
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Craven
LONG TERM...Craven
AVIATION...WM


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