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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151338
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
938 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Warm weather to start the week with values ten degrees above
normal. The latter part of the week, Wednesday onward unsettled
weather returns along with cooler weather.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- The last of the showers/storms exit by afternoon south of I70
- Warm weather continues with mid 60s to upper 70s
-----------------------------------------------------------------

13Z surface analysis illustrates boundary close to I70. This
will be the forecast challenge for today and development of
showers and storms this afternoon south of the aforementioned
boundary.

Latest CAMs initiate convection after 18Z south of I-70. The
primary threat is damaging wind and hail. Surface dewpoints
will surge into the lower 50s this afternoon, allowing enough
low level moisture coupled with the boundary dropping south to
trigger storms. HREF paintball and CWSAP parameter from NBM
point to a low probability in northern West Virginia. We do not
see the environmnet to produce two inch hail like we did
yesterday north of US422.

There will be a gradient of temperatures from north of I80 to south
of I70 where values will range from the mid 60s to upper 70s.
There is a 20% of seeing 80F or greater in the Fairmont to
Morgantown area. Much like yesterday if deep mixing occurs than
we could see two straight days of 80F.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances return for the latter half of Tuesday and
  continue through Thursday.
- Temperatures remain above average.
- Rain chances continue into mid-week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Brief upper ridging slides overhead on Tuesday reinforcing the
dry weather for the first half of the day, but clouds increase
from the southwest with increasing moisture aloft ahead of an
approaching shortwave traversing and flattening the ridge and
reintroducing showers for the second half of the day. We should
see a brief break overnight Tuesday night before trailing low
pressure arrives. Amounts with this batch look light with even
NBM 90th percentile values only near 0.1-0.2" through Wednesday
morning.

Above normal temperatures and rain chances continue to be the theme
into mid-week as southerly return flow promotes warm advection
kicking highs above average with ensemble probability for >70F in
excess of 70% through Thursday.

What`s left of the ridging breaks down into Wednesday as an upper
trough and surface low pressure dig across the Midwest with
diffluent flow aloft - Temperatures remain above average. Rain
chances continue into mid-week promoting broad ascent. Primary
ensemble uncertainty stems from the progression of the trough
and surface low, but consensus tracks it through the Great Lakes
to our north as it occludes and returns rain to our region by
Tuesday with a leading shortwave passing through. Rain chances
continue into Thursday as the warm front approaches with the
cold front following behind as early as Wednesday night or more
likely more toward early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Temperatures return closer to normal by the end of the week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

We`ll dry out briefly behind the front, but ensembles push a
secondary reinforcing trough through by late week which then
favors temperatures dipping back down towards normal to close
out the week and low confidence rain chances as early as Friday
morning, but more likely into Friday afternoon and evening.
Still early to talk rainfall totals, but ensemble spread sits
from 0.2" on the reasonable low end to near 1" on the high end
through Friday.

The Saturday and Sunday timeframe will still feature a lagging
boundary over the Appalachian Range. Along this, expect a
surface low to develop with precipitation possible once again
along it and through the Upper OH Valley on Saturday. Confidence
decreases for the potential into Sunday so just left the slight
chance pops suggested by the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Patchy valley fog is ongoing across the northern half of the
area this morning, where the heaviest rain fell yesterday
evening. Visibilities are already beginning to improve, however,
with DUJ/FKL back up to 6SM or better in their latest obs.
Thus, not expecting much impact in the 12Z TAF period. VFR
conditions prevail at all TAF sites throughout the day, with the
exception of possible restrictions associated with isolated
showers and thunderstorms south of I-68 (noted in the MGW TAF).

VFR conditions and light winds prevail overnight tonight.
Ensemble guidance suggests a low probability (less than 30%) for
patchy fog along and south of I-68 and in the higher terrain to
the east after 09Z Tuesday, but with such low chances, opted to
keep restrictions out of the TAFs at this time.


.Outlook...
VFR will persist until restriction potential returns late
Tuesday and Wednesday with approaching low pressure.
Restrictions are possible into Thursday under a subsequent upper
trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...McMullen
NEAR TERM...McMullen
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...MLB/Shallenberger
AVIATION...Cermak/Frazier