Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 232353 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
553 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Cloudy and breezy weather continues this afternoon then a potent
storm system brings very strong winds and winter weather to the area
tomorrow and Monday. The strongest wind gusts tomorrow will occur
east of the central mountain chain where rapid fire spread is
possible and blowing dust will likely create travel impacts. A
Pacific cold front will invade from the west tomorrow, bringing rain
and snow showers with its passage. A few to several inches of snow
will create minor impacts in the northern and western mountains.
Snow will favor the northern mountains again Monday, then
precipitation chances trend down Tuesday and Wednesday as
temperatures rise up to near seasonal averages. Windy conditions may
return late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

12Z upper air analysis showed the subtropical jet stream over the
region with speeds between 130-150kts at 250mb. Increasing winds
throughout the column will be the story overnight into Sunday as a
potent upper level trough/low, currently hitting the west coast per
the latest water vapor satellite imagery, races east toward the
southern Rockies and NM. High forecast confidence in strong to
damaging winds Sunday for much of eastern and south central NM,
where a High Wind Warning is in effect. Also added a few zones to a
Wind Advisory on the western periphery of the High Wind Warning. A
lee side trough will deepen in response to the approaching upper
level trough/low and a lee side low is forecast to reach down to an
impressive and rare 978-980mb across southeast CO, which is several
standard deviations below normal per the NAEFS MSLP standardized
anomalies. Previous case studies have shown southeast CO to be the
classic position for the lee side surface low in our more widespread
westerly high wind events. Blowing dust will be considerable Sunday
as well, especially in Chaves County where Dust Storm Warnings may
be required. Dangerous travel conditions will exist through much of
eastern NM Sunday, but especially on US 285 between Clines Corners
south through Roswell. The other and lesser impact from this storm
will be accumulating and blowing snow, which will be mostly
relegated to the western and northern mountains where a Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect for late tonight through Sunday night.
Accumulating snow may impact I-40 near the Continental Divide Sunday
through Sunday night. Temperatures will drop behind a Pacific cold
front Sunday and most of the area will experience blustery
conditions given strong winds and cold air advection yielding highs
10-20 degrees below normal. Winds will gradually subside Sunday
night, but the wind highlights may need to be extended a couple
hours into the evening. Otherwise, snow will continue to fly Sunday
night in the mountains, but may spread into the lower elevations
across far northeast NM where a backdoor cold front will make slow
southward progress.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Northwest flow in the wake of the 500mb trough axis will send a cold
front down the eastern plains on Monday. The associated cold air
advection will change all precipitation over to snow in the
northeast corner of the state. Dry air in the low-levels should
limit precipitation over the plains, but the NAM is hinting at the
potential for a snowband to develop along and just east of the
central highlands. Temperatures are marginal for snow, but localized
heavy snowfall rates could create accumulation along I-40 if the NAM
scenario comes to fruition. That being said, the probabilistic WSSI
is showing less than a 20% chance of minor impacts in this area so
it appears unlikely at this moment in time. Across western NM, moist
westerly flow will allow for the development of scattered convective
rain and snow showers during the day on Tuesday. LIs are right
around 0 in global models so widespread thunder is unlikely but a
few rumbles cannot be ruled out across the northwest if sufficient
clearing occurs. Temperatures will range from 10 to as much as 25
degrees below average areawide, so web-bulbing could support graupel
down to valley floors under heavier showers.

Drier air from the west out ahead of a ridge axis will dry us out on
Wednesday, but also pick up northwest breezes across most of the
area with potentially windy conditions in the central and northeast
highlands. While confidence is high that ridging will develop over
The Great Basin around mid-week, around 30% of models (mostly EC
members) are showing a substantially more amplified ridge that would
result in a significant warming trend that could bring late week
temps well above seasonal averages and allow the dry weather to
continue for several days. However, the majority of global ensemble
members continue to show quasi-zonal flow which could allow a
shortwave or two to graze the northern portion of the forecast area
late in the week. By next weekend, confidence is moderate to high
that a trough will be located over California coast. This trough
would eventually impact New Mexico at the very end of March/beginning
of April, but the speed of its progression inland remains highly
uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

An upper-level storm system and surface Pacific cold front will
bring rain and eventually snow showers (as snow levels fall) to
terminals in the NW half of New Mexico. Hi-res models consistent
in bringing precip to the AZ/NM border around 09Z, then
progressing eastward. Highest confidence for MVFR ceilings is for
KGUP and KFMN along and just ahead of the frontal precip band. The
front and associated wind shift reach the Rio Grande Valley
around 18Z. Strong southerly winds just above the surface, ahead
of the cold front, are forecast to produce low-level wind shear
at KTCC after 06Z until surface winds respond after sunrise. The
strongest winds will be over the eastern Plains Sunday afternoon,
where gusts should approach 50 knots at KROW and 45 knots at KTCC.
Blowing dust is also likely to be an issue at both of those
terminals, with IFR visibility possible at KROW if local dust
sources are activated.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM DUE
TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

Winds are on the upswing ahead of a potent trough and associated
cold front through Sunday. Strong to damaging winds are forecast
across much of eastern and south central NM Sunday and a Red Flag
Warning is now in effect for the eastern plains. The trough will
bring good chances for wetting precipitation in the form of
accumulating snow to the western and northern mountains, including
the lower elevations near the Continental Divide, going through
Sunday night. Colder and unsettled conditions with continued chances
for wetting precipitation will continue Mon/Tue as troughing
persists across the region. A warming/drying trend will begin
Wednesday as an upper level ridge moves east across the region.
Temperatures will be back to near normal by Thursday, but winds will
be back on the uptrend as the ridge moves east and is replaced with
increasing westerly flow. The potential for critical fire weather
conditions will be on the rise from Thursday through Saturday,
especially across eastern NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  36  47  32  51 /  60  60  30   5
Dulce...........................  33  43  26  46 /  70  90  40  50
Cuba............................  32  43  26  43 /  20  90  50  30
Gallup..........................  32  43  26  45 /  80  70  60  20
El Morro........................  31  39  26  40 /  40  90  50  20
Grants..........................  34  44  27  45 /  20  70  30  10
Quemado.........................  33  43  27  43 /  30  80  30  30
Magdalena.......................  37  47  31  47 /   0  40  10  30
Datil...........................  32  42  27  42 /  10  50  10  20
Reserve.........................  35  45  25  47 /  60  70  20  30
Glenwood........................  37  48  33  49 /  70  70  30  40
Chama...........................  30  39  23  40 /  60  90  60  60
Los Alamos......................  36  45  30  42 /  20  80  30  40
Pecos...........................  32  46  26  40 /   5  60  20  60
Cerro/Questa....................  33  42  28  37 /  40  70  50  60
Red River.......................  28  36  21  33 /  40  80  60  80
Angel Fire......................  30  39  20  32 /  30  60  50  80
Taos............................  33  47  25  40 /  30  60  30  50
Mora............................  33  46  24  36 /  10  50  30  60
Espanola........................  37  52  30  49 /  20  80  30  40
Santa Fe........................  36  47  28  42 /  10  80  30  60
Santa Fe Airport................  35  50  27  45 /  10  70  20  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  41  51  35  50 /   5  70  20  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  41  53  35  52 /   5  50  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  41  55  34  55 /   5  50  10  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  41  53  35  53 /   5  60  20  20
Belen...........................  40  56  34  55 /   5  50  10  20
Bernalillo......................  41  54  34  53 /   5  70  20  30
Bosque Farms....................  39  56  33  54 /   5  60  10  30
Corrales........................  41  54  34  54 /   5  60  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  39  56  33  54 /   5  50  10  30
Placitas........................  40  50  33  48 /   5  70  20  40
Rio Rancho......................  41  52  34  52 /   5  60  20  20
Socorro.........................  42  58  36  57 /   5  40  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  37  45  29  42 /   5  80  20  40
Tijeras.........................  37  47  31  45 /   0  80  20  40
Edgewood........................  36  47  29  46 /   0  70  20  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  33  49  27  47 /   0  60  10  40
Clines Corners..................  34  46  24  42 /   0  60  10  40
Mountainair.....................  36  47  28  46 /   0  70  10  40
Gran Quivira....................  36  49  27  46 /   0  70  10  40
Carrizozo.......................  43  53  33  50 /   0  50  10  30
Ruidoso.........................  36  46  30  43 /   0  60  10  50
Capulin.........................  36  55  22  30 /   5  20  70  50
Raton...........................  34  58  24  37 /  10  20  60  60
Springer........................  36  59  27  38 /   5  20  40  40
Las Vegas.......................  35  52  25  36 /   5  20  20  50
Clayton.........................  43  63  25  36 /   5  20  50  40
Roy.............................  39  59  26  37 /   5  20  30  50
Conchas.........................  45  63  31  43 /   5  20  20  50
Santa Rosa......................  43  59  31  43 /   0  20  10  30
Tucumcari.......................  46  64  30  44 /   5  10  10  30
Clovis..........................  47  65  33  49 /   5  10  10  20
Portales........................  46  67  34  51 /   5  10  10  30
Fort Sumner.....................  46  63  33  49 /   5  20  10  30
Roswell.........................  51  68  39  62 /   0   5  10  30
Picacho.........................  46  58  35  55 /   0  10  10  30
Elk.............................  43  54  33  52 /   0  30  10  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 7 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ223-225-
226-229>240.

Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ104-126.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for
NMZ202-206-210-211-213-214.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ208-212-215-
221-222-224-228.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...53


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