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000
FXUS65 KABQ 190824
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
224 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 122 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A cold front that moved through eastern NM overnight brought much
higher humidity and gusty winds. Temperatures will rebound behind
the front today except for the southeast plains where highs will
remain in the 60s and lower 70s. A reinforcing cold front will
move into the region tonight with much colder air across eastern
NM Saturday. Highs will be 20 to 30 degrees below normal. Patchy
fog, drizzle, light rain, and a few showers are expected from the
central mountain chain across the plains. Gusty canyons winds are
likely again tonight in the Rio Grande Valley. Temperatures will
warm up again Sunday after clouds and fog burn off in the morning.
Meanwhile, western NM will remain dry, warm, and breezy through
the weekend. Monday and Tuesday will remain dry and breezy for the
entire area followed by the next moist cold front across eastern
NM for Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 122 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Backdoor front/boundary pushing west of the Rio Grande Valley early
this morning. East wind gusts to 35 kt here at the Sunport so far
this morning will gradually weaken through the early morning. Low
clouds across eastern NM will hang on through the morning hours
before gradually dissipating by early afternoon. The east winds into
the Rio Grande Valley and the low clouds in the eastern half will
return once again tonight, potentially with an east wind that is
slightly stronger with more in the way of upslope stratus clouds. An
approaching short-wave trough in the zonal flow aloft will help draw
in the cooler, more moist air to the east, also resulting in a few
elevated showers or thunderstorms near the TX line late tonight into
Saturday morning. Another round of elevated convection is possible
from the east slopes of the central mountain chain eastward Saturday
afternoon as the above mentioned short wave moves through and
interacts with the low level Gulf moisture. Thanks to the backdoor
front, high temperatures will be below average values for mid April
in eastern NM both today and well below Saturday with near average
highs in the RGV and above average west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 122 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Eastern NM will remain socked in with low stratus, patchy fog,
light rain, drizzle, and a few showers Saturday night. Canyon
winds will taper off in the RGV as the pressure gradient relaxes
and surface winds become more south/southeast over eastern NM.
Low clouds will erode Sunday morning across the east while drier
northwest flow invades the area. Temps will warm several degrees
across the east but still be roughly 10 to 15F below normal. The
west will remain dry and warm Sunday.

A weak perturbation in zonal flow aloft will cross the region on
Monday and allow a few afternoon showers to develop near the high
terrain. Winds across eastern NM will become south/southwest once
again with temps warming 10 to 20F over Sunday`s highs. Southwest
flow over western NM will keep temps above normal with very low
humidity. Another surge of low level return flow will attempt to
enter eastern NM Monday night with more low clouds. This boundary
may set the stage for a few showers again on Tuesday along the
central mt chain. Western NM will remain warm, dry, and breezy. A
more pronounced surge of low level return flow with patchy fog,
light rain, and some showers may enter eastern NM Tuesday night
with gap winds possible in the RGV Wednesday morning. An upper
level trough approaching from the west may sharpen a dryline over
eastern NM with perhaps some thunderstorms across the plains while
strong southwest winds take over central and western NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Backdoor cold front now pushing westward into the Rio Grande
Valley. Patchy low clouds in eastern NM will increase in areal
coverage overnight as a result of easterly upslope flow. Areas of
MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds will develop tonight mainly
over northeast and east central areas. Low clouds will likely
work their way between the Sandia and southern Sangre de Cristo
mountains, impacting KSAF with low clouds at times Friday morning.
The low clouds will gradually dissipate over central and eastern
NM during the early afternoon Friday, but the low level moisture
will hang around with another round of low clouds along the east
slopes of the central mountain chain Friday night. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are then forecast to develop for the
eastern plains Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A backdoor cold front is bringing low level Gulf moisture into
eastern and central portions of the state this morning. The moisture
in the Rio Grande Valley will be scoured out this afternoon but not
before resulting in moderate overnight RH recoveries. Gulf moisture
hangs on in eastern NM through today and with a weak wave moving
through NM late tonight and Saturday, showers and thunderstorms are
possible mainly near the TX line late tonight and along and east of
the central mountain chain Saturday afternoon. High temperatures
will trend below average for eastern areas today and especially
Saturday while central NM remains near average and western areas
above average for mid April. A warming and drying trend is forecast
for Sunday and Monday with another backdoor front expected to bring
shower and thunderstorm chances to northeast NM Monday night and
Tuesday. Elsewhere, light winds and dry air will remain the rule
until winds begin increasing ahead of the next Pacific storm system
on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  77  45  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  74  38  74  33 /   5   0  20   0
Cuba............................  72  42  69  36 /   0   0  20   0
Gallup..........................  76  38  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  72  40  70  38 /   0   0   5   0
Grants..........................  77  38  74  35 /   0   0   5   0
Quemado.........................  76  41  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  77  47  69  41 /   0   0  10   0
Datil...........................  74  43  69  41 /   0   0   5   0
Reserve.........................  80  37  77  38 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  83  46  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  68  36  66  32 /   5   0  40  10
Los Alamos......................  70  45  63  40 /   0   5  30   5
Pecos...........................  71  41  56  35 /   0  20  40  10
Cerro/Questa....................  67  45  61  40 /   5  20  50  20
Red River.......................  63  31  58  29 /  10  30  70  30
Angel Fire......................  64  32  54  26 /   5  30  50  20
Taos............................  72  38  65  31 /   5  20  40  10
Mora............................  71  37  55  32 /   5  40  40  20
Espanola........................  78  46  71  39 /   0  10  30   5
Santa Fe........................  72  46  62  39 /   0  10  30  10
Santa Fe Airport................  76  46  64  38 /   0   5  20   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  78  50  66  45 /   0   0  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  79  48  67  44 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  81  47  69  41 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  80  48  69  44 /   0   0   5   0
Belen...........................  82  48  74  40 /   0   0  10   0
Bernalillo......................  80  48  70  43 /   0   0  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  81  47  72  39 /   0   0  10   0
Corrales........................  81  48  71  43 /   0   0  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  81  49  73  39 /   0   0  10   0
Placitas........................  75  48  65  43 /   0   0  20   0
Rio Rancho......................  80  49  72  44 /   0   0  10   0
Socorro.........................  87  51  76  44 /   0   0  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  71  40  59  40 /   0   5  20   5
Tijeras.........................  73  42  62  38 /   0   5  20   5
Edgewood........................  75  40  60  36 /   0   5  20   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  39  60  34 /   0   5  10   5
Clines Corners..................  72  37  49  34 /   0  20  20  10
Mountainair.....................  76  41  60  37 /   0   0  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  77  43  60  36 /   0   0  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  80  49  70  42 /   0   0  30  10
Ruidoso.........................  73  44  57  38 /   0   5  50  20
Capulin.........................  63  31  46  31 /  20  60  30  20
Raton...........................  69  36  53  32 /  20  50  30  20
Springer........................  71  37  52  34 /  10  50  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  70  38  51  34 /   5  40  30  10
Clayton.........................  61  36  47  33 /   5  50  30  30
Roy.............................  66  37  48  34 /   5  60  40  20
Conchas.........................  72  41  51  39 /   0  60  40  20
Santa Rosa......................  70  41  50  38 /   0  40  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  71  39  49  37 /   0  60  50  20
Clovis..........................  68  42  50  38 /   0  70  80  40
Portales........................  68  41  51  37 /   0  70  80  40
Fort Sumner.....................  72  43  53  39 /   0  50  50  20
Roswell.........................  75  51  61  47 /   0  20  50  30
Picacho.........................  72  44  57  40 /   0   5  40  20
Elk.............................  76  43  61  39 /   0   5  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...33