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000
FXAK69 PAFG 222147
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
147 PM AKDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Upper level ridging will continue across Interior Alaska with warm
temperatures. An upper shortwave will tack across the Lisburne
Peninsula through Tuesday with light snow spreading across the
North Slopes. Meanwhile, and upper low over the Bering Sea will
begin to track eastward spreading precipitation and winds into the
West Coast for mid to late week. Models begin to diverge
significantly by the end of the extended period, with the
deterministic models producing anywhere from broad northwest flow
aloft, to upper ridging across Interior Alaska. The confidence in
the forecast beyond Sunday is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate areas of the Interior
through the end of the work week. Temperatures will remain mild,
with mostly 40s to 50s each afternoon. Increased mid and high
cloud cover will likely keep temperatures slightly cooler, but if
the sun does come out over the next few days, highs could reach to
near 60. At this time, no precipitation is expected through the
end of the week. For the weekend into early next week, model
guidance continues to be dry, however, a couple of showers may be
able to move off the West Coast and into western portions of the
Interior. But overall confidence in any solution is low at this
time for the far end of the extended period.

An upper shortwave located over the Lisburne Peninsula will continue to
lift northeast across the North Slope through Tuesday night. This
will bring areas of light snowfall across the North Slope over
the next couple of days. Flow will then increase out of the
northeast from mid to late week and lead to fog, low stratus and
periods of light snow through the end of the extended period.
Winds could be breezy at times, with sustained winds 20 to 30 kts
possible. Temperatures range from the teens along the coast, to
20s up along the Brooks Range.

Weather across the West Coast will be dominated by the Bering Sea
low that is forecast to track southeast across the Aleutians and
into the Gulf of Alaska through Saturday. Winds out of the
southeast will increase through Tuesday and Wednesday, with the
current Winter Weather Advisory for St. Lawrence Island for much
of Tuesday looks good due to snow, blowing snow and gusty winds.
For the West Coast, two lobes of energy will rotate around the
parent low from Tuesday into Thursday. Both will bring rounds of
coastal snow and inland rain through Thursday. The core of
strongest winds look to remain offshore at this time, but winds
near 20 to 25 kts will be possible. A frontal boundary will drop
south along the coast Friday into the weekend turning flow
northerly, and helping to bring precipitation to an end over the
weekend. Much, however, will depend on where the upper low ends up
for the later half of the extended period.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-817-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-857-858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.
&&

$$