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000
FXAK67 PAJK 181337
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
537 AM AKDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SHORT TERM...Another day of quiet weather for the entirety of
southeast Alaska as a blocking ridge persists in the gulf,
deflecting any moisture to the west. While near gale force winds
can be seen in the central gulf along a stalled frontal boundary,
winds across the panhandle remain relatively light with some
breezy outflow winds out of E and NE interior passes. With clear
skies prevailing, radiational cooling will allow for temperatures
to range from the mid to upper 50s in the afternoon but drop into
the 30s overnight. Minimal changes to inherited forecast aside
from adjusting for current conditions.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/...The end of the week
brings about an end to the dry and warm weather for SE AK as the
gulf high pressure ridge shifts east. A trough from 500 mb low
over the Western AK Gulf extends over the SE Gulf then rotates
over the Panhandle from S to N Saturday night into Sunday. At the
surface the stalled front that was over the Western Gulf moves
east then pushes over the Panhandle. Cloud cover increases and
temps return to seasonable normals with a narrower diurnal range.
The front will shear apart as it loses upper level support so not
expecting much in the way of rainfall amounts. Operational models
have fair amount of spread on if this front will produce any
precip but ensembles have been consistent keeping in some light
precip. As the front rides over the ridge another short break in
precip occurs Monday as another low moves in from the west.
Northerly winds diminish as pressure gradient weakens with a
directional shift occurring through Saturday into Sunday. Active
weather continues into next week. More spread in operational model
solutions due to the break down of the ridge but ensembles keep a
broad low in place with precip for most of the time, so overall
lower confidence in forecast details next week

&&

.AVIATION.../ Through Thursday night / No aviation hazards
expected due to clear skies and dry weather persisting through
tonight. Winds to stay light less than 15 kt, except for a few
local areas of 20 kt. Afternoon seabreezes anticipated to impact
some airports.

&&

.MARINE...High pressure over the region will stall an advancing
front over the gulf. Strong to near gale southeasterly winds will
persist over the central gulf through the week before high
pressure moves E of the region. Over the inner channels, generally
light to gentle winds prevail with moderate to fresh NE to E
outflow winds out of Taku Inlet, back side of Douglas Island and S
Lynn through Cross Sound.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-642>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...Bezenek

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