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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221611
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1211 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the lower Mississippi Valley will
build east today, and settle over the local area tonight into
Tuesday morning. The high will slide off the Carolina coast
later Tuesday, followed by a weak cold front pushing through the
region on Wednesday. Strong high pressure builds from the
eastern Great Lakes eastward to off the New England coast
Thursday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Monday...

The latest WX analysis indicates ~1026mb sfc high pressure
centered from east Texas to the lower/mid MS Valley, with sfc
low pressure well off the SE US coast. Aloft, a trough is
pushing through the region, and extends all the way south to
northern Florida. A NNE low level flow along with some colder
air aloft is leading to BKN cumulus development across southern
VA and NE NC in addition to the mid/high clouds. Temperatures
remain rather cool, ranging through the 50s (though this is
warmer than yesterday at this time for most places).

Highs today will generally range from the low-mid 60s well
inland to the upper 50s/lower 60s near the coast (about 10F
below avg for late April). The sky will avg out partly-mostly
cloudy through mid aftn over the S/SE, and partly-mostly sunny
elsewhere. Diminishing cloud cover is expected all areas by late
aftn as the upper trough pushes offshore and a very dry airmass
spreads in from the W (dew pts into the low-mid 20s piedmont to
the lower 30s near the coast). The sfc high pressure system
becomes centered over the local area tonight, allowing for a
clear sky, light winds, and good radiational cooling conditions.
This will allow for the sfc dew pts to rise several degrees
(into the lower 30s) after sunset, conducive for frost formation.
Forecast lows will be in the low- mid 30s over rural areas W of
the Chesapeake Bay (upper 30s in more urban portions). Near the
coast, lows will generally be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The Frost Advisory remains in effect for much of the CWA, and
will assess the setup and potentially expand to include a few
counties to the east from the current product.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 AM EDT Monday...

Turning warmer on the backside of the sfc high for Tue, with a
light southerly flow by aftn. Mainly sunny with highs in the
lower 70s inland/Piedmont, and in the mid to upper 60s at the
coast. Increasing clouds Tue night in advance of another cold
front. Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The system/cold front
on Wed will be northern stream, with low level flow turning
westerly rather quickly. As such, moisture will be limited, and
PoPs will only be 20-30% N and ~15% S. It will be well mixed and
warmer, with highs into the mid to upper 70s (except lower 70s
N/NW and over the Lower MD/VA ern shore). The front pushes SSE
of the area Wed night, with sfc high pressure building eastward
across the Great Lakes. Mostly clear to partly cloudy with lows
ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 430 AM EDT Monday...

High pressure will build from the eastern Great Lakes eastward
to off the New England coast Thu through Fri. Mostly sunny on
Thu with highs ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Clear/mostly
clear Thu night with lows ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s
(with patchy frost possible). Partly to mostly sunny on Fri with
highs ranging through the 60s to near 70. Partly to mostly cloudy
Fri night with lows ranging through the 40s into the lower 50s.
There could be isolated showers across the N Sat into Sun
morning, as a weak warm front lifts into/across the area. Highs
on Sat in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Lows Sat night in the lower
to mid 50s. Warmer on Sun, as an upper level ridge amplifies
across the ern CONUS. Highs on Sun in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Low pressure was continuing to move farther out to sea early
this morning, leaving mostly VFR SC and AC CIGs at ORF and ECG.
Otherwise, Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites
from this morning into Tue morning, as just SCT-OVC high and
mid level clouds will persist through this aftn, before mainly
SKC this evening into Tue morning. High pressure will build into
and over the region later today through Tue.

Outlook: VFR conditions will continue Tue into Tue night. There
is a minimal chance for showers Wed, but conditions will primarily
stay VFR. Dry/VFR conditions Thu and Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...

Latest obs/buoy reports showing NNE winds of 10-20 kt over the
local waters, highest over the Chesapeake Bay as of 08z. ~1020+
mb surface high pressure continues to build to the west, as
deepening ~1003mb sfc low pressure slowly pushes farther
offshore of the coastal Carolinas early this morning. Waves in
the bay are 2-3 ft, except 3-5 ft at the mouth of the Ches Bay.
Seas have begun to build slightly with the renewed surge of
cold air advection, averaging 3-4 ft N, 4-6 ft S, and SCA flags
remain flying for coastal waters south of Cape Charles.

Meanwhile, SCA remains in effect for the bay, Currituck Sound
and lower James River for the latest surge of cool air advection.
Winds have not yet increased in the lower James and Sound as of
this writing, but are expected to increase to low-end SCA
thresholds over the course of the next couple of hours. Winds
and elevated seas should slowly start to ease by late
morning/afternoon, as high pressure builds further into the
region. This should also allow winds to diminish as the pressure
gradient slackens considerably by this afternoon and evening.

Secondary low pressure deepens along the stalled front well
offshore late Tuesday and may keep some enhanced 8-10 second
E-SE swell moving toward the coast, potentially necessitating
another round of SCA for all/most of the coastal waters Tue
night. Meanwhile, a mainly dry cold front approaches from the
west late Tuesday into Wednesday. A re-tightening of the surface
pressure gradient results in increasing SW winds to around 15
kt, though some low-end SCA may also be needed in the Bay and
lower James River. The front moves through the region Wednesday
night into early Thursday, with increasing N winds and potential
for SCA headlines in its wake.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ012-013.
VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-079>083-087>089-092-509>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>634-638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ656.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...LKB/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/RHR