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000
FXUS63 KAPX 191829
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
229 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain/snow chances this afternoon through Saturday, with the
  potential for graupel to mix in with any heavier showers.

- Cooler than normal temperatures through the middle of next
  week but no high impact weather expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Closed upper-level low pressure continues
to spin across northern Ontario with broad/amplified troughing
draped across the Great Lakes and upper MS Valley. Attendant surface
low expected to follow suit to the northeast into Quebec by this
evening. Initial cold front already east of our area with a
secondary front expected to cross northwest to southeast later
tonight into Saturday morning.

Forecast Details: Partly sunny skies across much of northern
lower this afternoon with more cloud cover north of the bridge
in closer proximity to the aforementioned surface low. Relatively
steep lapse rates and increasing low-level moisture already
supporting showers developing this afternoon across eastern
upper. These showers perhaps mixed with graupel and/or snow at
times into the overnight hours. Those chances spread across
northwest lower and the tip of the mitt this evening and
overnight with lower probabilities across northeast lower and
especially near Saginaw Bay. Any snow accumulation likely
minimal with some locations perhaps picking up a coating to a
few tenths of an inch. Low temps tonight generally within a
couple of degrees on either side of freezing -- coldest inland
from the Great Lakes.

A similar story anticipated for Saturday with at least low chances
for showers continuing under partly to mostly cloudy skies. While
afternoon highs likely reach into the low-mid 40s area-wide, some
snow mixing in remains a possibility, especially for the typically
cooler/interior spots. Again, a minor accumulation not entirely out
of the question, although with little impact expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Still expecting a breezy and cool weather pattern across the region
over the next several days as a trough becomes established across
northeast Canada. Do expect this trough to eventually give up the
ghost late next week leading to warming temperatures. Looking
farther ahead, above normal temperatures are expected for the last
few days of the month. Precipitation chances in the long term are
limited to Monday night into Tuesday night from a short wave moving
in off of the Pacific and Friday via warm air advection. A majority
of the upcoming low temperatures (with the exception of perhaps
Monday night) will be at or below freezing with at least a couple of
nights potentially as low as the low and mid 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Largely VFR expected through the TAF period with the possible
exception coming late tonight into early Saturday morning with
low probabilities for MVFR CIGs -- primarily at CIU/PLN.
Scattered rain/snow showers return to CIU this afternoon with
lower probabilities at northwest lower MI terminals tonight into
Saturday. Occasional gustiness this afternoon to near 30 kts.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MJG