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000
FXUS64 KBMX 171755
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1255 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT WED APR 17 2024

This afternoon.

A closed low was centered over Central Wisconsin while shortwave
ridging was over the Central Plains and longwave ridging was well
to our east of much of the Gulf of Mexico extending northeast to
over Central Florida. A shortwave disturbance was located by
satellite over North Mississippi. A surface cold front extended
southwest from an occluded surface low across Central Wisconsin
across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley into Oklahoma where
another surface low was located across the panhandle. Surface high
pressure was centered off the Southeast Atlantic Coast.

Expect skies to range from partly cloudy southeast to mostly
cloudy west and north. Showers with some thunderstorms will
continue to affect much of our northern counties through mid
afternoon while a compact cluster of showers and thunderstorms
across East-Central Mississippi is expected to persist as it moves
east-northeast toward West-Central Alabama through early
afternoon. Winds will be from the southwest at 6-12 mph. High
temperatures will be locally affected by showers and storms but
will generally range from the mid 70s northwest to the mid 80s
southeast.

Tonight.

A more zonal flow aloft will develop over the area as more
shortwave disturbances move east over the area while mid-level
ridging becomes more confined over the South-Central Gulf of
Mexico while the potent upper low moves northeast over Northern
Michigan. Surface high pressure remains centered off the Southeast
Atlantic Coast while another surface low deepens over Kansas with
the stalled cold front draped from that low east across the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley Region and across the Eastern Ohio River
Valley.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy north and west and partly cloudy
southeast. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue to be focused generally along the
Interstate 20 corridor, affecting the north-central portion of the
forecast area with lower chances elsewhere. Winds will be from
the south to southwest at 3-5 mph. Low temperatures will range
from the upper 50s northeast to the mid 60s southwest.

Thursday.

Weak longwave ridging will temporarily rebuild over the eastern
portion of the area early Thursday afternoon while a shortwave
disturbance moves east over Eastern Oklahoma and Texas and will
approach the area later in the evening. Surface low pressure will
move northeast to near the St. Louis, MO area toward midday with a
cold front extending southwest from the low to near the
Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX metro area while surface high pressure
remains well to our southeast.

Skies will range from partly cloudy northeast to mostly cloudy
south and west with isolated showers through the morning hours
followed by isolated showers and a few thunderstorms by midday
through early afternoon. Chances for showers and storms are
expected to increase toward the evening with the approaching
shortwave where showers and storms may organize into a convective
complex to our northwest and move into the area during the night.
Winds will be from the southwest at 6-12 mph. High temperatures
will be in the mid 80s areawide.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT WED APR 17 2024

An active subtropical jet will bring westerly 500 mb flow and
unsettled weather conditions to the region for Friday through
Sunday. The first disturbance is expected to move across the
eastward from the Mississippi Valley Thursday night supporting
moist 20-30kt southwesterly flow at 850 mb. As the associated
weak front approaches from the northwest, scattered showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms could affect our northern half
Thursday night into Friday.

The split flow pattern and associated upper-level confluence will
support strong high pressure from western Canada southward into the
Plains and Southeast CONUS. This shallow cool airmass will move
southward into Alabama on Saturday ahead of a shortwave moving out
of Texas. As a result, isentropic lift is expected to overspread
the region over the weekend, potentially leading to widespread
rain and embedded thunderstorms.

With the passage of the shortwave trough, dry conditions should
return for Monday and Tuesday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT WED APR 17 2024

Showers and thunderstorms so far have skirted to the north of our
northern terminals and expect that to continue through mid
afternoon with an exception for TCL where more thunderstorms in
East-Central MS are expected to track near the terminal from
19-21z. Potential is too low to carry showers or storms at any
other site through 00z but if activity persists near TCL early
this afternoon, downstream impacts at BHM/EET will be possible.
Expect more showers with a few storms this evening and overnight
with CIGS from VFR south to MVFR north. Chances for showers will
decrease early on Thursday followed by increasing potential from
BHM to EET and west, including TCl just beyond the forecast
period.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH values will increase significantly today ahead of an approaching
front. A band of showers and a few thunderstorms will impact
northern portions of the area today. Southwesterly 20 foot winds
should range from 6 to 10 mph. Much of the area will remain dry
on Thursday in between weather systems with RH values above 40
percent. 20 foot winds should be from the south at 8 mph or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     59  86  62  81 /  60  30  50  40
Anniston    60  86  63  82 /  60  30  40  40
Birmingham  63  85  65  82 /  60  30  40  40
Tuscaloosa  65  85  65  83 /  60  30  30  30
Calera      63  85  65  83 /  60  30  30  30
Auburn      63  84  65  84 /  20  20  20  20
Montgomery  64  85  65  86 /  20  20  10  20
Troy        62  85  64  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...05