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000
FXUS65 KBOU 170314
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
914 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds over the plains to decrease substantially after
  sunset this evening.

- Cooler, breezy and unsettled through Saturday with precipitation
  off and on. The best chances will be Wednesday night into
  Thursday morning and again Friday afternoon into Saturday.

- Drier and warmer by early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Winds have decreased everywhere and are trending towards
drainage. It will turn out to be a dry and quiet night. There were
no changes to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 307 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The strong northwesterly winds are still blowing over most of the
plains at this time with plenty of gusts in the 50-60 mph range.
The weak convection over the plains has ended. There are still
some light snow showers along the divide mountains at this time,
with light accumulations.

Models show weak subsidence for the CWA overnight, then more benign
synoptic scale energy on Wednesday. Models show moderate northwesterly
flow aloft tonight, then 70-90 knot zonal jet level flow on
Wednesday.

Concerning the winds, today`s should subside early this evening with
normal drainage patterns expected in most areas overnight. Cross
sections show a weak mountain wave setup overnight into Wednesday.
Will make sure decent winds are in the forecast over the
mountains and  foothills. Models also show some northwesterly
winds on the plains for Wednesday, but nothing like today`s higher
values. Of note; now all the models are showing the decent cold
front and upslope to get into the CWA after 00z Wednesday late
day. Some had it coming into the northeast corner by 21Z on
earlier runs.

Shallow available moisture tonight will only support "isolated"
mountain snow showers. Moisture increases a bit through the day
Wednesday, especially over the northern CWA. There should be some
minor snow accumulations in the mountains by afternoon.

Wednesday`s highs should be a couple degrees C warmer than this
afternoon`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Wednesday night into Thursday, an west to east oriented jet max will
pass across WY/northern CO.  A cold front associated with the
passing trough will push into the Denver by Wednesday evening,
with post-frontal northeast upslope winds developing from around
03z to 18z Thursday. The upslope will be fairly shallow from the
surface to 750 mb. In addition, most of the forecast area will be
on the south side of the jet max with weak mid/upper level QG
ascent Wednesday night followed by weak subsidence on Thursday.
With all this said, generally light to moderate precipitation
expected. Temperatures will be near freezing Thursday morning, so
the rain/snow mix to possible snow at that time for Denver but no
impacts expected with warm pavement temperatures. In the mountain
zones primarily north of I-70, some locations could get 4-6
inches, The best chance for precipitation with this system will be
in the 03-15Z period. High temperatures will drop back to the mid
40s to lower 50s for Thursday. After a brief break in the
activity, another period of unsettled weather will occur Friday
and Saturday with a another wave of light to moderate
precipitation expected. Some of the precipitation will be aided by
the left entrance region of the exiting jetstream on Friday, then
the trough itself passes across WY/CO Friday night into Saturday.
The trend will be shifting back to drier and warmer for the rest
of the period as a ridge of high pressure builds over the West.
High temperatures will transition from the low 50s on Saturday to
the mid 70s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/...
Issued at 625 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

There has been a slight mountain wave enhancement of the winds at
KBJC and gusts could reach 40 knots or greater through 02Z. At
all terminals, gusty westerly winds will decrease as the sun sets.
Around 03-04Z, light drainage winds will develop and persist
throughout most of the night. Winds will increase around midday
Wednesday with gusts up to 30 knots possible. A cold front will
then move across the terminals during the late afternoon or early
evening. This will shift winds to the north and eventually
northeast a couple hours after the front moves through.

There will be enough instability across the Denver metro tomorrow
afternoon that a shower or two could form. If these showers do
occur, gusty and variable winds may develop from the virga. The
chance of these showers directly impacting a terminal is very low.
After the cold front, rain showers become more likely. By 04-06Z,
low ceilings between 1-3 kft will likely develop with drizzle or
light rain showers slightly lowering visibility. There is a small
chance of fog or ceilings below 500 feet as well.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Danielson
SHORT TERM.....RJK
LONG TERM......Cooper
AVIATION...Danielson