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000
FXUS61 KBUF 171443
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1043 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will move from west to east across the region today as a
warm front moves into the region. A cold front will track across the
region tonight with more showers and a few gusty thunderstorms,
especially across western New York this evening. High pressure will
move into the region Thursday and Thursday night. A secondary cold
front will bring scattered showers Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A closed low located over the upper Midwest will move east-
northeast this afternoon and tonight. A band of showers will
continue to move across western New York through early afternoon
with dry conditions remaining east of Lake Ontario.

A dry slot will start to work its way into western New York later
this afternoon. This could open the window for some gusty downslope
winds off the Chautauqua Ridge, however gusts should not exceed 35
mph in favorable locations. As the upper level ridge axis moves into
eastern New York, rain showers will move into the eastern Lake
Ontario region by mid to late afternoon. High temperatures will
reach the mid to upper 60s across favorable downslope areas and to
the upper 50s to low 60s across the remainder of the forecast area.
Rainfall amounts will average 0.1-0.25 inches across western NY
today.

Surface low pressure will weaken as it moves from the U.P. of
Michigan to Northeastern Ontario tonight. Upstream convection will
move into far western NY, ahead of a trailing cold front this
evening. Instability will be decreasing with the loss of daytime
heating, however up to 500 J/Kg of MUCAPE is possible west of the
Genesee Valley. Shear profiles are favorable for organized
convection and any thunderstorms that develop may continue into far
western NY before weakening further east. There is a Marginal risk
of Severe Weather across Chautauqua county with the main concerns
being strong winds and large hail, mainly between 22z-02z. Showers
and any thunderstorms will move east overnight with drier weather
entering western NY behind the old cold front/occluded front.
Rainfall amounts will range with the potential for thunderstorms,
however basin wide averages of 0.25 to 0.50 inches are possible
across the western Southern Tier and the eastern Lake Ontario
region. Lesser amounts are expected from the Niagara Frontier to the
Finger Lakes region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A progressive pattern will keep systems moving fairly rapidly from
west to east across the area through the period.

Weakening upper wave and associated surface occluded front will
finish slowly pushing through the eastern half of the forecast area
on Thursday. Supporting weak upper wave will lag behind its surface
reflection, so a few scattered showers will remain possible across
areas from the Genesee Valley west through midday/early afternoon,
before transient ridging nudges into western NY bringing a mainly
dry finish to the day there. Meanwhile, deeper moisture ahead of
this occluded boundary will keep steadier showers going east of Lake
Ontario through the morning hours, before tapering off to more in
the way of scattered activity in the wake of the boundary as its
upper level support swings through. With regard to rainfall amounts,
an additional one to two tenths of an inch will be possible from the
eastern Finger Lakes to the North Country, while less than a tenth
of an inch is expected for the western Finger Lakes and points
westward. Fairly seasonable temperatures with highs ranging from the
mid and upper 50s east of Lake Ontario to the low to mid 60s from
the Finger Lakes westward, cooler across the higher terrain.

Aforementioned transient ridging will then slide east across our
region providing a brief period of mainly dry weather Thursday
night. A few lingering scattered will light showers will remain
possible first half of the night east of Lake Ontario as surface
boundary that moved through on Thursday stalls just to our east,
then washes out overnight. Lows will mainly range from the mid to
upper 40s.

A northern stream system will then slowly strengthen as it moves
across northwest Ontario into central Quebec Friday and Friday
night. While this will keep the steadier synoptic precipitation north
of our area, it will push an associated strong cold front across the
area on Friday bringing a period of rain showers that will trek from
west to east across western and northcentral NY from later Friday
morning through the afternoon hours. Basin average rainfall will
average from a tenth to a quarter of an inch. Other than a few
lingering scattered light showers east of the Finger Lakes Friday
evening, a surface ridge will nose into the region bringing another
brief period mainly dry weather Friday night. Decent cold air
advection behind the front will cool things off a bit Friday night
with more seasonable lows ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A potent shortwave moving through the base of an upper level trough
will cross the area Saturday, while forcing a secondary surface cold
front across the region during the morning hours bringing renewed
chances for some scattered showers and maybe even a few wet flakes
across the highest terrain. The main supporting shortwave will cross
the area Saturday afternoon. With the cold pool residing aloft,
expect some uptick in shower activity Saturday afternoon with at
least scattered instability showers developing.

A large area surface high pressure will then build east across the
region Saturday night through at least Monday night bringing a
period of dry weather for the second half of the weekend and start
of the new work week. However, with broad troughing remaining in
place aloft, temperatures will remain on the cool side for Sunday,
before the airmass modifies some on Monday.

Models then diverge on the timing and location of the next system
possibly impacting the area by Tuesday into the mid week timeframe,
so will keep PoPs capped at low chance for now.

Temperatures will start out below normal for the first half of the
period, with highs mainly in the mid 40s to low 50s through the
weekend. Temperatures will rise to near normal by Monday, with above
average highs expected for Tuesday. This will translate to a range
of 50s across the area for Monday, with mid 50s to mid 60s by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers and lowering ceilings will expand east resulting in low-end
VFR to MVFR conditions across western New York by this afternoon.
VFR conditions will persist east of Lake Ontario (KART) today.

Unsettled conditions with degraded flight conditions will continue
into this evening with rain showers in vicinity of Lake Ontario and
the eastern Lake Ontario region. Mainly MVFR conditions are expected
across the region but IFR conditions are possible across the Finger
Lakes region and into central NY (outside of TAF sites.)

Another round of showers with a chance of thunderstorms will enter
western NY this evening. Thunderstorms and heavy showers may result
in IFR or lower at KIAG, KBUF, and KJHW through this evening.
Confidence is low for coverage of convection, however best
chance will be near the NY/PA line and KJHW between (22z-03z.)
Showers will move east overnight and flight conditions will
remain MVFR with a chance of IFR after 06z across a majority of
the forecast area.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely.
Friday and Saturday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds will increase today with Small Craft Advisory
conditions expected along portions of Lake Ontario, especially on
the western end ahead of an approaching warm front.

Winds turn more southerly on both Lakes behind the warm front by
Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSK/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK/TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...HSK/TMA
MARINE...HSK/JM/TMA