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000
FXUS62 KCAE 210003
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
803 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves slowly southward and through the area
tonight. The front becomes stationary near or slightly south of
the area Sunday. Deep moisture and lift across the area will
result in numerous showers Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures
Sunday and Monday are expected to be well below normal. Drier
conditions return on Monday, with a gradual warming trend
through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
23z Update. SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch until
1000 pm for the Pee Dee and east Midlands. Will not clear
counties at this time although overall threat appears to be
diminishing. The stronger storms are moving toward the north
coast SC. CIN has developing in the northern Midlands and has
been worked over. Convergence on the boundary has weakened as
well. Air mass to the south of the boundary appears to be a
little drier. Still a severe threat mainly in the east Midlands
south of the surface boundary although shear is weaker there.
Focus may shift to the CSRA soon as thunderstorms are moving
east across central GA in area of strong low-level convergence
and moderate instability ahead of a more robust mid level short
wave trough. CIN expected to expand after sunset, but noticed
DCAPE around 1000-1200 J/kg. Still think overall severe threat
low at this time. But raised pops in the CSRA and southeast
Midlands later this evening with mainly scattered coverage
expected. Increased pops toward daybreak as isentropic lift
develops in the SC Piedmont. Temperature forecast appears on
track...

The boundary will finally push south and east later tonight
with strengthening northerly, dry low level flow and
corresponding increasing 850-700mb moisture advection and
isentropic lift. So shower activity will increase as the
boundary sags south overnight into Sunday morning with wedge
conditions beginning to develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday and Sunday night: Surface cold front will be situated
south of the forecast area. Weak high pressure off to the north
will push cooler air into the region on northeasterly winds,
allowing a low-level wedge to develop. Aloft, shortwave energy
moves out of the central Gulf Coast States to start off the day,
then traverses the southeastern U.S. into Sunday night. Ahead
of the upper wave, a good deal of isentropic lift is expected as
warm moist air lifts and overrides the surface wedge in place
across the forecast area. This will lead to periods of light to
moderate rainfall for a good portion of the daytime hours
Sunday. Temperatures will be much colder as the wedge develops
and rainfall re-enforces it through the day. High temperatures
may actually occur early in the day in many areas, with
temperatures either holding steady or slowly falling through the
day. Max temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s
north to mid 60s south. Sunday night will see the rain begin to
end from west to east as upper energy moves east and towards the
coast. Lows Sunday night in the lower 40s north, to the upper
40s south.

Monday and Monday night: As deeper moisture moves east with both
the exiting shortwave and surface front, drier air will be
settling back into the area through the day. Can not rule out a
brief period of light rain across the extreme east early Monday
morning as the system moves out. In addition, an isolated shower
can not be completely ruled out as the main upper trough moves
through. For the majority of the forecast area, it will remain
dry though. Clouds may still hang around behind the low through
a good portion of the day, which will still help to keep cooler
temperatures in the area, but still a little warmer than
Sunday as highs do reach into the middle 60s. Skies should begin
to clear out some by Monday night. Overnight lows in the low to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Period will be mostly on the dry side, with only a slight chance
for rain entering late in the period. Two frontal boundaries
are forecast through the period. The first comes through
Wednesday night/Thursday, but with limited moisture to work with
it should push through mostly dry. Better chance for rain may
occur with the second front toward next weekend. Temperatures
will slowly continue to moderate each day through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this evening with
deteriorating conditions Sunday morning.

Convection has thus far avoided the Columbia terminals with
thunderstorms passing near/over the Augusta terminals. Watching
a thunderstorm approaching OGB this evening but it appears to be
weakening. Will continue to monitor as the evening goes on. Low
VFR ceilings will push in behind the boundary overnight into
Sunday morning, but should remain VFR through 09z Sunday at AGS-
DNL and 12z at CAE-CUB-OGB before dropping to MVFR. Widespread
showers and some isolated thunderstorms are also expected
overnight starting after 06z at all sites through the end of the
TAF period. IFR cigs will then likely develop by late Sunday
morning for all sites and remain down through the end of the
period.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High confidence in ceiling and
visibility restrictions Sunday night into Monday with wedge
conditions expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$