Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 290550
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
150 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves towards the region through tonight. Winds
will begin to diminish overnight. The area of high pressure and
upper ridging should keep the region dry on Friday through the
weekend with a significant warming trend into early next week.
The next chance for any rainfall appears to be during the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Fair and cool. Low pressure offshore NC coast, with high
pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley, directing cool dry
air into our region under a N/NW low level flow through tonight.
The center of the high will shift east into AL/GA by late
tonight. Winds are expected to gradually decrease, but are
expected to stay up enough over most areas to prevent best
radiational cooling and frost threat. However, by late tonight,
indications of winds lightening up enough, especially western
areas closer to the high, that patchy frost could develop over
colder wind-protected locations. Not enough confidence for a
Frost Advisory, but will mention patchy frost towards daybreak
over N/NW portions of the SC Piedmont/CSRA. Temps could be just
as cool over the N/NE Midlands due to cold advection but with
winds expected to be a little higher there, will not mention
patchy frost for those locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Beautiful short term period is expected just in time for the Easter
Holiday Weekend. Deep longwave trough that has been impacting our
weather the past couple of days will continue to progress eastward,
shifting offshore to begin the period, with convergent flow aloft
helping to shift the surface high pressure system eastward across
the FA. This isn`t much of an airmass shift outside of dry air
pushing in, as PWs are expected to be less than 1" through Saturday,
slowly increasing again on Sunday as the surface high shifts to the
southeast of the area. Friday and Friday night will be the coolest
portion of this period, with highs Friday in the upper 60s/lower 70s
and lows in the mid 40s. Highs will quickly rise on Saturday/Sunday
as heights increase and surface westerly/southwesterly flow increase
in strength across the area. Expect highs in the 70s on Saturday and
in the low 80s on Sunday with mostly sunny skies both days. Lows are
expected to rise into the 50s on Sat Night and 60s Sun Night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Very warm conditions look likely to continue across the area on
Monday and Tuesday. Anomalous ridging (~2ish SD above normal) at 500
hPa will remain in place as a trough digs into the western US. We`ll
still be on northwestern side of the surfaced high across the
Atlantic, and with a deepening surface low over the central Plains,
strong westerly and southwesterly flow is expected to develop and
aid in warm air advection ahead of the approaching front on Tuesday
night. So have trended temps towards the warm side of guidance in
the mid 80s for highs. It wouldn`t surprise me if we ended up a
touch cooler than that, but the setup is favorable for very warm
temps in this period. The complex part of this forecast owes to the
aforementioned trough across the western CONUS. Uncertainty is high
with this, as every piece of guidance seems to do something slightly
different with the way the trough digs and evolves next week. There
are many solutions depending on what does happen with this, but
regardless, showers and thunderstorms look possible ahead of the
passing front Tuesday night and into Wednesday of next week. A drier
and cooler airmass does push into the region behind the front, but
that can be addressed once there is increased confidence in the
Tuesday/Wednesday system. Forecaster confidence is above normal in
the Friday through Monday timeframe, with below normal confidence in
the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR through the TAF period.

A very dry air mass is building into the area throughout the
period. Northwest flow aloft through Friday and cumulus clouds
not expected. So sky clear. Northwest winds overnight around 5
knots. Winds becoming west around 10 knots with a few higher
gusts after 18z Friday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
through Tuesday morning. A few showers or thunderstorms possible
late Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...


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