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000
FXUS64 KCRP 131652
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1152 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Dry weather continues as upper-level ridging remains in place and a
surface high pressure center treks eastward. This will allow for the
persistence of southeasterly winds, and therefore, increased onshore
flow and moisture return. Because of this, warmer temperatures can
be expected in South Texas in the coming days. Highs will reach the
low 90s in the Rio Grande Plains and the Brush Country today, with
the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads regions reaching the upper
70s to low 80s. By tomorrow, highs increase to the mid 90s out west,
with our northeastern counties and coastal areas staying in upper
70s to the low 80s.

Breezy conditions will also be likely the next couple days. A
surface low propagating eastward from the Rockies is set to move
into the Central Plains. This will tighten the surface pressure
gradient, causing stronger winds for our CWA. Sustained winds will
range between 15-20 mph, with a medium-to-high chance (60-80%) of
wind gusts greater than 30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Mid-upper level ridge will prevail over South Texas through Sunday
Night maintaining the quiet pattern. The next trough will move
into the Central Rockies Monday resulting in cyclogenesis in the
Lee of the Rockies and tightening of the pressure gradient over
South Texas. The low level jet is progged to strengthen to 30-35
knots on Monday resulting in breezy/windy conditions which could
flirt with wind advisory criteria in the late afternoon. The
mid/upper level trough will move across the plains on Tuesday
pushing a weak frontal boundary into Texas and abruptly relaxing
the pressure gradient. This boundary should stall just north of
our CWA on Wednesday and could be a focus for a few storms
although there is considerable uncertainty given the differences
in model guidance with the GFS being more bullish than the ECMWF
on the environmental conditions and dynamics aloft. Rain chances
increase again over the weekend as a frontal boundary approaches
and the southern jetstream sets up over South Texas. Coincident
with the upper jet, moisture increases as well with precipitable
water values reaching 1.5 to 1.7 inches. There is currently a low
to medium (20-40%) probability for precipitation next weekend.

Temperatures will show a gradual warming trend through the week with
highs ranging from the upper 80s to upper 90s by mid to late week
potentially cooling off next weekend depending on whether a frontal
boundary moves into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Breezy conditions are expected through this afternoon. Winds will
decrease overnight, then restrengthen around 14Z Sunday. VFR
conditions will diminish to MVFR as low ceilings develop from
08Z-15Z before VFR conditions return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    83  68  84  70 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          81  65  82  67 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            91  68  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             85  65  88  68 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          79  69  80  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           90  66  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        83  66  85  69 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       80  70  81  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...LS/77