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000
FXUS61 KCTP 161021
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
621 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-Pleasantly mild today with low humidity and light wind
-Periods of rain Wednesday-Friday with limited flood risk
-Weekend cooling trend; monitoring frost/freeze potential

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Chilly/frosty start to across the Alleghenies early this
morning with temps around the freezing mark in the northern
tier. A hall-of-fame type of day lies ahead with plenty of sun,
low humidity, and light wind. Highs will range from the mid 60s
in the northern mtns to the mid 70s across the southern ridge
and valley region.

Clouds increase tonight with light rain/warm front expected to
reach the western part of the CWA by 8AM Wednesday. Lows will
range from around 40 degrees in the Endless mtns to the low 50s
in the southern tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Expect periods of rain on Wednesday with noticeably cooler
temperatures thanks to cold air damming (CAD) setup along and
east of the Allegheny Plateau. Best chance for an [elevated]
t-storm and heavier rainfall will be along the western periphery
of the CWA Wednesday evening into early Wednesday night.
Although soil saturation and streamflows remain above average,
the risk of flooding is marginal/low due to lack of high
rainfall rates and increased stability. Fog and drizzle may
accompany rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with
locally dense fog shrouding the ridges.

POPs gradually decrease Thursday into Thursday night, but
expect plenty of low clouds to persist as CAD wedge remains
entrenched on the eastside of the Allegheny Front. Wed & Thu
nights will be relatively mild with lows 45-55F.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will most likely pass through Friday before
stalling out to the south for the weekend into early next week.
Showers are possible Friday with the frontal passage. Canadian
high pressure will approach the region for the weekend into
early next week while a series of disturbances track along the
boundary that is stalled to our south. Some frost is possible
during this time, depending on how far south the high can build.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Calm winds and clear skies could result in some frost/icing
concerns across the northern tier by daybreak. Clear skies will remain
in place through most of the day with light and variable winds.

High clouds begin streaming in from the southwest tonight
(generally after 00Z) as moisture begins to increase ahead of
our next system. Winds will become easterly overnight into
Wednesday morning as lower clouds and rain traverse the region.

Outlook...

Wed-Sat...Periods of SHRA with brief low clouds and patchy fog
expected. IFR/subIFR conditions are likely late Wednesday into
Friday. TSRA possible during this time, but overcast
skies/southeast flow should limit thunderstorm potential
somewhat. Possibly a dry period Friday night and early Saturday
morning before more showers affect the airspace.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KCCX radar experienced a pedestal fault last evening and is
offline. Our technicians will diagnose the problem this morning
and hopefully bring the radar back up as soon as possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert/Banghoff
AVIATION...Banghoff
EQUIPMENT...Steinbugl